Carson Wentz Stat Tracker: Week 18

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

Ranks are based on the 30 QBs that have played through Sunday night.

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HOW WELL?

Not good. Not good at all.

Wentz had 39 drop-backs and only 15 of them added positive value (38.5% PSR). Out of 544 QB games this year, that ranks 439th. And he had 4 other games this year that were worse!

His EPA was -0.29, which is 25th on the week, and his 2nd worse number as a Colt.

His 1st down conversion rate was poor (22nd). His net yard efficiency was poor (26th). On the year, his numbers aren’t terrible, but they are not trending in the right direction. In his last 6 games, he really only had 1 good complete game.

He had such a poor game against the Jaguars (left graph) that it pulled his season numbers below average (right graph).

After week 13, I warned that Wentz was likely due for regression because his supporting stats were low relative to his overall efficiency. Specifically, his EPA per drop-back rank of 15th was significantly higher than the primary measures that drive it:

• 20th Passing Success Rate
• 24th First Down Conversion Rate
• 21st Net Yards per Drop-back

In other words, he was getting good results even though he wasn’t getting a lot of yards or first downs and he couldn’t consistently log positive value plays. This usually results in a regression going forward and his last 4 games proved me right. Those supporting measures stayed relatively the same, while his EPA efficiency dropped significantly:

• 22nd Passing Success Rate
• 21st First Down Conversion Rate
• 25th Net Yards per Drop-back
• 26th EPA/d

My point is that if his performance in the last quarter of the season surprised you, then you weren’t paying attention to the data.

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HOW FAR?

Wentz tried long passes and he even completed one of them. 6.4 yards per attempt is below average, but it isn’t terrible.

Wentz tried to stretch the field with the 4th longest attempts and 12th longest completions.

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TO WHO?

Pittman was pretty much all garbage time numbers.

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HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy continues to be Wentz’s downfall. He was 5.9% below expected completion this week and on the year, he finishes as the 5th least accurate QB.

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HOW FAST?

Wentz was a little slow to pull the trigger, but it makes sense, given the 4th longest attempts. On the year, however, he held the ball longer than expected given the depth of his targets (he is above the trend line in the right graph).

If you look at the QBs above the line (too slow), they averaged 0.05 epa per drop-back and 2.01 points per drive. The QBs below the line (quicker relative release) averaged 0.12 epa per drop-back and 2.26 points per drive.

Just sayin’.

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TO WHERE?

Deeper passing was a problem this week and unfortunately, the short passing could not make up for it.

Overall, Wentz was still a deep threat in 2021.

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DASHBOARD

Let me tell you a numerical story of 2021 Carson Wentz.

He faced the 6th easiest passing defense of any QB (27th opd), while managing a run-first offense (21st epd%) that was one of the best in the league on the ground (3rd arsr).

He held the ball longer than the average QB (11th) even though his passing depth was shorter than average (19th adot), which suggests he had a bit of trouble finding open receivers. He did not try deep passes all that often (22nd 20+), but when he did, he had good success (8th 20+e).

His depth on completions was actually longer than average (14th ay/c) and given that distance, his receivers provided just -0.2 yards shy of the expected amount of yac per completion (20th yacoe). His poor accuracy (28th cpoe) diluted all of that, however, and so his overall yards per attempt fell below average (22nd ypa).

He faced the 6th most pressure of any QB (37.7% pr%) and since that is so much higher than his time to throw (11th), that implies his O-line didn’t provide the best protection. He didn’t take many sacks (20th sck%) relative to the pressure he saw, which means he had good mobility and so his net yardage efficiency is relatively better than his ypa (20th ny/d).

He didn’t turn the ball over much (27th to%) and he threw a good amount of TDs (12th TD rate). Unfortunately, he wasn’t able to move the chains with his arm very well (24th). Basically, once the Colts reached the red zone, Wentz was very good (12th rze), but getting there through the air was an issue.

His final epa efficiency ranked close to average (+0.08 20th). That result is in line with his supporting stats as is usually the case (20th psr, 20th ny/d, 24th 1st%).

GLOSSARY

drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)

opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured

ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.

wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)

ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.

pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)

adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.

20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards

ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.

cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)

yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.

yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)

ypa: Yards per Attempt

aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.

ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs

scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs

sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs

to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs

ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)

1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs

td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs

rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone

orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone

20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards

psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0

epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.