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Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Ranks are based on the 30 QBs that have played through Sunday night.
DASHBOARD
Carson Wentz giveth and he taketh away.
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(Glossary of terms at the end of the article)
Despite the match-up favoring a pass game, the Colts played a run-first scheme (28th ed%) that had good success on the ground (5th arsr).
Wentz was slow to get rid of the ball (5th ttt) on very short average attempts (26th adot), which is the worst of both worlds. However, his depth on completions was about league average (15th ay/c), although primarily due to a 45 yard interception TD.
His accuracy was very poor (23rd cpoe) and the wide receivers added little additional yardage (28th yac, 28th yacoe). Unsurprisingly, all of those bad numbers combine into a bad yardage efficiency (24th ypa).
Despite holding the ball a lifetime, Wentz leveraged his mobility to avoid a lot of sacks (18th sck%). That limited the dilution of his yardage efficiency on a drop-back basis, but it still is a horrible result (26th ny/d).
He lifted that efficiency by only throwing one horrible pick with a decent TD rate (15th td%), but he couldn’t get first downs with his arm (27th 1st%), so it wasn’t much help. His overall efficiency on the day ranked 23rd (-0.14 epa/d).
HOW WELL?
Lots of negative plays including a 45 yard INT, but a 45 yard TD is not one of them.
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Is it just me or do the following stat charts look like an electrocardiogram? Doctor! We’re losing him!
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HOW FAR?
Only 3 completions over 10 yards and 1 of them was a pick TD.
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Last week I said I can’t complain about long completions on short attempts. I lied. I am absolutely complaining about that this week.
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Season-long YPA drops to 21st on the 21st avg completion depth. Short passes are fine if the YPA is good. Wentz’s isn’t.
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TO WHO?
The only thing I like from this chart is that Mo Alie-Cox actually came to play.
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T.Y. Hilton is the lone wide receiver of “value” this week and that is based on a joke of a pass.
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HOW ACCURATE?
Week 17 continues the trend of poor accuracy with a -9.2% cpoe on a 59.3% completion rate. Keep in mind, Wentz’s average pass was less than 6 yards deep.
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HOW FAST?
Extremely long time to throw + extremely short passes = Jacoby Brissett 2.0
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TO WHERE?
So deep passing was good because of the one deep pass that was an INT a TD.
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On the year his location chart is . . . colorful.
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GLOSSARY
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.
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