#1 Everything plays out as it should (60% chance)
KC beats DEN, BAL beats PIT, CIN beats CLE, IND beats JAC, BUF beats NYJ, NE beats MIA, LAC beats LVR.
Wild Card Week: Colts @ Bengals
This is the most likely matchup in my opinion, as the Colts will travel to Cincinnati to face off against the playoff inexperienced Bengals. Cincinnati has been somewhat of a surprise this year, with Burrow returning from an ACL year and playing some really good football, forming a dangerous duo with receiver Ja’Marr Chase, while running back Joe Mixon rounds out a terrifying offense that can kill you both on the ground and through the air.
The main weakness of the Bengals has been their offensive line, as they have allowed the second-most sacks per game this season. It is worth noting that quarterback Joe Burrow left the game against the Chiefs with a knee injury that was bothering him. While the Bengals are a very dangerous team, the lack of playoff experience is most likely to hurt them a bit, so facing them would not be such a tough scenario.
#2 Revenge Game in Nashville (15% chance)
Everything plays out as it should BUT the Texans surprise everyone and beat the Titans
Wild Card Week: Colts @Titans
The Titans are most likely going to have Derrick Henry for the playoffs, and as we have seen in recent weeks, they are an entirely different team with that beast at running back. Of course, the second-best running back in the NFL has a big impact on the way the offense is played, and I would even dare say that the Titans run their offense more through Henry than the Colts’ do JT. This would be a really fun matchup because either the Titans’ fans are going to be insufferable through the offseason, rightfully so, after beating us 3 times in a single year, or the Colts are going to get vengeance when it matters the most. Who would care about a regular-season sweep when the Colts beat the Titans in the playoffs?
#3 Patriots once again struggle to play @Miami (10% chance)
Everything plays out as it should BUT the Patriots fail to defeat the Dolphins and the Colts take the #5 seed.
Wild Card Week: Colts @ Bills
The Patriots have struggled to face the Dolphins in Miami, and before being eliminated from playoff contention last week the Dolphins had a really impressive winning streak going, so they are not exactly an easy team to beat. Still, the Patriots are the favourites in this game for a reason and most likely they are beating the Dolphins, which is why this particular scenario is not that likely. If that happens the Colts will be forced to travel to the cold depths of Buffalo to once again face off against the Bills. Make no mistake, the Bills are no easy opponent, especially in the playoffs. The Colts did basically everything right on their win in Buffalo while the Bills made mistakes they most likely are not making twice in a season. This would be the toughest matchup in my opinion, and one the Colts should not be looking forward to.
#4 Colts lose against Jacksonville, watch playoffs from home (15% chance)
While the Jacksonville Jaguars are easily among the worst teams I have seen in recent memory, the Colts have not won in Duval for 6 straight seasons, and they have faced much easier matchups than this one. While he has certainly struggled as a rookie, Trevor Lawrence is a talented quarterback, and they have some playmakers on defense that can complicate any game. If the Colts lose against the Jaguars and miss the playoffs as a result, then some serious questions need to start being asked around the Colts’ HQ.