For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.
Here is what Trevor Lawrence has looked like on the season.
The Jaguars are a run-first team (23rd ed%) with a less than average run game (22nd arsr) and have faced average passing defenses (16th opd).
Lawrence holds the ball a long time (9th ttt), but doesn’t see a lot of pressure (15th pr%). He throws far (8th adot), so he’s not totally wasting that time in the pocket, but he doesn’t complete many of those passes. He has the 3rd worst accuracy (30th cpoe) and only the 23rd ranked completion distance (5.5 ay/c). Specifically, his deep passing is terrible (32nd 20+e) so he doesn’t try it too often (16th 20+).
Off of those short passes, his receivers don’t get much additional yardage (28th yac). And with his very poor accuracy, that means his 6.0 yards per attempt is the 2nd lowest in the league (31st ypa).
He’s an average scrambler (13th scr%), he doesn’t take many sacks (20th sk%) and he throws the ball away a lot (9th ta%), so, he manages pressure well, but it doesn’t really help his overall yardage efficiency (30th ny/d).
He’s a turnover machine with the 2nd highest to% of any QB. He complements that with the worst TD rate and lowest conversion rate in the league (32nd TD%, 32nd 1st%).
That’s just all kinds of horrible that culminates in the 29th ranked epa efficiency (-0.09 epa/d) and the 26th passing success rate (44.1% psr), which places him firmly in the lower left quadrant of the following graph.
Lawrence’s efficiency has been consistently poor. He’s had a few above-average games, but they are the exception.
His passing depth has been trending down, while his completion depth has trended up. So, perhaps he is finding his groove.
When he does throw TDs, it is on longer passes than the average.
Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault Jr. have the most yards/receptions, but Laquon Treadwell has been their main recent “threat”.
Lawrence has horrible accuracy but I guess it is trending better . . . maybe?
He has an above-average time to throw, but on longer than average attempts. Even accounting for depth of target, though, his ttt is a little long.
drop-back: Attempts + Sacks + Scrambles + accepted Defensive Pass Interference (DPI)
opd: The epa/d given up by opponent defenses in all games other than the QB/team being measured
ed%: The % of plays on early downs(2) that are QB drop-backs.
wrsr: The % of designed carries that earn more epa than the median league value in similar game situations (down, distance, field position etc.) adjusted for 4th qtr game script and weighted by result (TD, first down, other)
ttt: The average time from snap to the point when a QB throws.
pr%: The % of drop-backs where the QB was pressured (per Pro Football Focus)
adot: The average air yards thrown per attempt.
20+: The % of attempts >+ 20 air yards
ay/c: The distance between the line of scrimmage to the point of reception.
cpoe: Completion % over an expected amount based on game situation (air yards, down, distance, field position etc.)
yac: The distance between point of reception and the spot of the football at the end of the play.
yacoe: The yac over the league average yac for a given game situation (yards thrown, down, distance, field position etc.)
ypa: Yards per Attempt
aa%: The % of drop-backs that result in a throw-away, sack or scramble.
ta%: Throw-Aways as a percentage of drop-backs
scr%: Scrambles as a percentage of drop-backs
sk%: Sacks as a percentage of drop-backs
to%: Interceptions and QB lost fumbles as a percentage of drop-backs
ny/d: Net Yards per drop-back. (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + Scramble Yards ) / (Att + Sacks + Scrambles)
1st%: Passing first downs as a percentage of drop-backs
td%: Touchdown as a percentage of drop-backs
rze: Expected Points Added per drop-back in the red zone
orze: Expected Points Added per drop-back outside of the red zone
20+e: Expected Points Added per drop-back on passes >=20 air yards
psr: The % of drop-backs that have epa> 0
epa/d: Expected Points Added per drop-back.