Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.
For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
I was hoping that a move to Indy would have given Matt Ryan a chance to improve his performance from last year, but it turns out he traded a bad O-line with no run game or receivers for a bad O-line with no run game or receivers. His constant turnovers aren’t helping out either.
Week 4 was encouraging, but then week 5 came along and bashed encouraging’s brains out with a rock, resulting in another negative EPA game with a poor success rate.
His conversion rate was near league average, but his net yardage efficiency was garbage.
For 2022, did anyone have Geno Smith being one of the best QBs and Matt Stafford being one of the worst?
Against Denver, Ryan’s 6.3 ypa was pretty consistent throughout the game and he managed to complete a lot of passes. Without the interceptions, his performance might have improved from “horrific” to simply “bad”.
He tried shorter passes against Denver and that resulted in shorter completions. Strange how that often is the case.
Pierce’s progression is encouraging. Having 2 downfield threats . . . no that’s not the right word . . . having 2 downfield choices could help right the ship.
Ryan’s accuracy seems to be back on track, which is fundamental for any future success. If there is a silver lining, this is it.
He had a slower release time with the shorter passes. That’s kind of the opposite of what you want.
Against Denver, he found some success on the left side of the field.
On the season, he has primarily found value past 10 yards.
Numbers relative to the 30 QBs through Sunday evening.
Down 2 starting rushers, the Colts still tried to force the run game and still had no success (23rd edp, 27th arsr). When he did pass, Ryan held the ball a long time relative to his short passing attempts (7th ttt, 24th adot). That is either a QB that is hesitant to throw or isn’t finding anyone open. I think I know which.
His accuracy was good and his completed depth was about average (10th cpoe, 14th ay/c). Normally, that means good yardage efficiency, but the Indy receivers did not gain a lot of yac (24th yac, 22nd yacoe) and so his yards per attempt was poor (21st ypa). On top of that, he was sacked a lot . . . a whole lot (4th sk%), which drove his average yardage numbers even further south (28th ny/d).
He turned the ball over and didn’t throw TDs, which is a bad combination (5th to%, tied 25th td%). He managed to throw some first downs but not enough to overcome all the other negatives (19th 1st%), so his overall efficiency was again near the bottom of the barrel (26th, epa/d, 21st psr).