Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
7 punts and 2 turnovers. That’s it. That’s the story.
OK, fine. I’ll elaborate. While the Colts’ offense had sporadic success moving the ball and was on the Denver side of the field often, sacks and turnovers prevented those opportunities from reaching the end zone. The expected points from their efforts was 11.8, so there is no real hidden story in the data. The offense was what their point total said.
They couldn’t gain yards (31st yds/ply), which means they couldn’t get first downs (25th 1st/ply), which means they couldn’t get points (26th PPD). Sprinkle in some turnovers and you get poor overall play efficiency (27th EPA/ply, 30th DSR).
Surprise, surprise . . . Matt Ryan ranks near the bottom of QBs this week. He only managed 4.2 yards per dropback (31st) and that isn’t going to move the chains much (21st 1st%) or provide any consistent passing success (23rd PSR).
If he can’t adapt to a poor O-line, we’re just going to see more of the same.
Another week, another poor rushing effort. 4.0 yards per carry may not seem that bad, but those carries only earned the 30th ranked conversion rate . . . so, that’s bad.
CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD
This certainly wasn’t the worst that I have seen this offense play, but it was close.
I really don’t want to play the Jags again. In our last 2 games against them, the Colts have scored 11 points total. So there’s that. Football Outsiders calls them the 7th best defense, which makes sense as they have limited opponents to an average of 16 points per game (7th best). Yikes.
Against the pass, they have given up the 2nd lowest EPA per dropback to opposing QBs and the 3rd lowest passing success rate. Double Yikes. Against the run, they aren’t quite as good, but still pretty good, giving up the 12th lowest adj RSR.
This has the makings of another poor performance from the Colts O, yet we are 2 point favorites.