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Last week, I wrote:
Tonight, the Colts +3.5 and +145 S/U are on the road against the Broncos -3.5 and -170 S/U. At some point, the Colts have to overcome their slow start, and no, as I’ve been saying in my podcast, I don’t think it’s this week on the road in Denver. However, we are priced into taking them straight up because it will be a boon to us as part of a parlay.
Right now, no one reads this because we haven’t been winning, but read that last sentence. We nailed this pick.
On Sunday, the Titans -1.5 and -130 S/U are on the road against the Commanders +1.5 and +110 S/U. I have no dog in this fight, but I want the Commanders to win just because it’s against our Division rival and it would sort of let Wentz back into the “start more than 12 games” conversation, whereas earlier this week the Commanders were ISO a QB. We are getting some love if we take them to win straight up at +110, so let’s do it!
We were wrong here.
I’m taking the Lions +3.5 and +270 S/U over the QB-less Patriots -3.5 and -170 S/U because you need one of those to play offense in this game. Again, if we are trying to hit it big, we ought to take bets that will help our parlay if we hit, so again I’d just take the Lions straight up and ride the lightning. They’re exciting to watch at least!
The Lions lost 29-0 here.
This will go right over some of your heads, but the Texans +7 and +270 S/U are 2-1-1 on the road ATS and face a Division rival in the Jaguars -7 and -325 S/U. This is an example of a situation where again, we are priced into taking the deep underdog Texan team to upset what appears to be a pretty good Jaguars team all things considered. I’m not saying they’ll upset the Jags, so no, we aren’t also priced into that. Sometimes, you gotta let Vegas fill you in. The Jags are probably going to win, so let’s just hope for a close game.
Again, no one is reading this but we nailed this upset.
The Atlanta Falcons +9.5 and +340 S/U are 4-0 ATS on the road against the Bucs -9.5 and -425 S/U. This feels pretty much like a no-brainer. Again, we aren’t priced into taking the Falcons to upset the Bucs on the road, but they are basically a lock to keep it close, right?
Got ‘em. Definitely said they’re a lock to keep it close.
Lastly, the Dallas Cowboys +5.5 and +195 S/U are 3-1 ATS on the road against the Rams -5.5 and -230 S/U. This is absolutely a situation where I’d bet the Cowboys to keep it close over expecting them to upset the Rams because the Cooper Rush is undefeated conversation has to die eventually, right? Why not against the reigning Super Bowl Champions?
Cooper Rush is still undefeated as a starting quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys in case you had Jerry Jones pictured as who you look at when you say “God, I see what you do for others. Can you at least do that for me?”
So anyway, we were a healthy 4/6 or 4-2 last week.
Thursday Night Football
I am absolutely not tying anymore hopes on Carson Wentz to do anything other than either shock or totally disappoint me. There is no consistency here. The Commanders just lost on Sunday and have to play on a bad field on Monday night. I just made a video with my wife where we pick winners of each game. I said on that video that I think Carson Wentz has to win this game to keep his job! It’s like that sometimes. I don’t want to bet on him or the Commanders. I want to take Chicago +100 because I believe in growth, just not in Carson Wentz. I’m torn. What do you think?
I’d bet the Patriots +2.5 beat the Browns on the road all day every day.
I think the Colts -2 get off the Division schneid against the Jaguars on Sunday.
I think the Vikings -3.5 beat the Dolphins on the road.
I think the Rams -10 beat the Panthers at home.
I think the Chiefs +2.5 win at home against the Bills.
I would absolutely take the Dallas Cowboys +6.5 again not to win the game but to keep it close against the undefeated Eagles.
Okay here’s a pick for you the Chargers -4.5 by a mile over the Broncos.
I’ve yet to develop a tried and true strategy so I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I’ve come up with the perfect solution to this — no I tend to look for good value to the point where I leave points on the table when a splash play (like basically draft Travis Kelce at this point or lose to him, right?) I like the Seahawks hosting the Cardinals at think Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett could have themselves a day. I also think there are a couple certainties on a Sunday afternoon and that’s mostly that the Indianapolis Colts will not have an effective gameplan to stop the run or pass against the visiting Jaguars (win or lose), so I think it’s a good practice to bet on guys like James Robinson and Christian Kirk to have their way. I would point out the Jaguars literally just lost a game 13-6 which doesn’t bode well for this prediction, but it’s such a week-to-week league that I have to believe the Colts may win and also give up the farm in the process. I like Breece Hall and think the Bucs D/ST has a nice matchup. Who you got? Win anything?
I feel like this year, if you have Travis Kelce and Lamar Jackson (like I do in my 4-1 league), you are having a good time. If you don’t, I’m willing to bet you’re losing to teams that have them. I’m middling in my only cash league (however deep, I went 0QB and then got stuck with Tua and Teddy — both injured — and am now starting Kirk Cousins or Carson Wentz on a short week — yuck!) and have bottomed out at 1-4 in the Stampede Blue Staff league. After taking JT with the first overall pick (I was convinced to do so and would’ve taken Run CMc), my season has just gone uphill. How are you doing? Winning anything?