For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Ryan’s worst performance as a Colt came against Jacksonville in week 2, so it is only fitting that his best game happened on their 2nd meeting.
Out of the 26 QBs that have played through Sunday night, Ryan put up the 4th best EPA per drop-back and the 7th best passing success rate. He consistently strung together positive value plays, with the biggest one coming on the game winning TD.
His overall efficiency was driven by a high 1st down conversion rate and an above-average yardage efficiency.
His performance was so strong this week that it has dragged his season numbers out of the cellar and I will officially call him “not a bottom 10 QB”.
The main take-away on this next graph is that it is littered with first downs, even though the depth of targets was short.
Along with the shorter attempts came shorter completions, but as long as they get decent YAC (which they did) and move the chains (which they did), then that is all that matters.
Deon Jackson’s heavy involvement in the passing game was a welcome change.
For week 6 (left graph) almost every receiver added positive value.
Ryan’s accuracy was what made this week’s game plan work. If you are going to throw short, you can’t miss, and for the 4th week in a row Ryan delivered an above average accuracy rating (8th cpoe).
The shorter throws allowed for quicker passes (17th ttt), which helped cure the sack outbreak of 2022.
Ryan was dangerous all over the field Sunday.
On the season, he continues to have his best success past 10 yards.
Now that we are 1/3-ish the way through the season, let’s look at Ryan’s 2022 numbers.
Numbers relative to the top 32 QBs by drop-back volume.
So far, Ryan has faced harder than average passing defenses and the Colts have, overall, been a pass-first team with an abysmal run game (12th opd, 10th edp, 31st arsr).
Ryan’s time to throw ranks 17th (ttt) to go along with the shortest passing depth (32nd adot) and the 12th most pressured drop-backs (12 pr%). That tells a story of a QB who is unsuccessfully trying to find open receivers and instead attempting to beat the pressure with short throws.
The short throws lend themselves to a high completion rate (4th cmp), but when accounting for distance, his accuracy on the year has been just a bit about average (16th cpoe).
Despite the league’s shortest attempts, his completion depth is actually about average (16th ay/c). Unfortunately, his receivers are getting less than average yac (20th yac, 20th yacoe) and so his yards per attempt is also below average (18th ypa). Add to that a high sack rate and low scramble rate and that drops his overall yardage efficiency to 23rd (ny/d).
Adding to the misery, he has turned the ball over a lot and hasn’t thrown many TDs. (9th to%, 23rd td%). However, his saving grace is that he has thrown a lot of first downs (11th 1st%), which keeps his overall epa efficiency from dropping through the floor (22nd epa/d, 20th psr).