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Good morning! If you’ve ever read anything I’ve written, you know that of all things I am not, it’s a robot. I am less tied to a deadline and more tied to writing what I feel comfortable writing about in terms of these things here (namely, anything involving prognostication, gambling, and football).
As injuries pile up, teams fire coaches (Panthers fired Matt Rhule), owners are exposed as the terrible people we knew them to be all along (Dan Snyder), and marquee players are traded for future assets (Christian McCaffery to the 49ers for draft picks). I wouldn’t feel comfortable putting out a mid-week article about sports betting.
For example, I was unsure who New Orleans was going to run out at QB on Thursday until that afternoon and while I figured Arizona would get it together eventually, especially in a week in which they get DeAndre Hopkins back on offense, winning on the road in the NFL is difficult, right?
Last week, I wrote here:
I said this about the games last week:
Thursday Night Football
I am not tying any more hopes on Carson Wentz to do anything other than either shock or disappoint me. There is no consistency here. The Commanders lost on Sunday and had to play on a bad field on Monday night. I just made a video with my wife where we pick the winners of each game. I said on that video that I think Carson Wentz has to win this game to keep his job! It’s like that sometimes. I don’t want to bet on him or the Commanders. I want to take Chicago +100 because I believe in growth, just not in Carson Wentz. I’m torn. What do you think?
See! I told you Wentz had to win this, and now he’s out with a fractured finger on his throwing hand.
I’d bet the Patriots +2.5 beat the Browns on the road all day, every day.
2-0! The Patriots aren’t losing to the Browns. Come on!
I think the Colts -2 get off the Division schneid against the Jaguars on Sunday.
3-0! 3-2-1 and in the thick of it!
I think the Vikings -3.5 beat the Dolphins on the road.
4-0! Easily the best start I’ve ever had!
I think the Rams -10 beat the Panthers at home.
5-0! Oh wow!
I think the Chiefs +2.5 win at home against the Bills.
5-1! You can’t predict them all!
I would take the Dallas Cowboys +6.5 again, not to win the game but to keep it close against the undefeated Eagles.
5-2. Again, Vegas doesn’t lose money!
Okay here’s a pick for you the Chargers -4.5 by a mile over the Broncos.
6-2/5-3 Depends on your definition of “by a mile.”
NFL SUNDAY/MONDAY WEEK 7
I fully expect that this will come back to bite me, but the easiest bet I’ve ever made in my life is taking the New York Giants +3 on the road against the fading and 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. I don’t know why they’re an underdog here!
The Colts +2 are on the road against the Titans -2, and again, I don’t think the outcome will be the same as just a few weeks ago. I wouldn’t say picking the Colts is an easy decision here. I have just a sliver of doubt in my heart, is all.
I am completely off the Denver Broncos -1 and anything affiliated with the now-washed Russell Wilson. I am on board with the New York Jets +1 entirely because I’ll attend a virtual football coaching certification with Soldiers to Sidelines and the team next weekend.
The Seattle Seahawks +5 on the road against the Chargers -5 (who struggled against the Broncos last week) feels appealing to me. The Seahawks don’t have to win to feel like I’m right that they’ll keep it close.
Lastly, the Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 are big road underdogs against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday Night Football, and I really like Mike Tomlin, if I’m being completely honest. I think the Steelers show up to play as they always do, and the more I gush about their coach, the more likely I am to write that I wouldn’t be surprised if they won on the road as a touchdown dog Sunday night. Feels very Mike Tomlin to me.
DAILY FANTASY SPORTS
Some notes from my weekly Classic strategy. I like QB Joe Burrow $6,900 at home against the Atlanta Falcons. As I’ve said, I’m biased and like the New York Jets, but I also like good football, so RB Breece Hall $6,200 and the New York Jets D/ST $2,600 are appealing. I’m not one to turn away from a sure thing, and if there’s one this year, it’s Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,100 on the road against the Cowboys in the house Jerry built. I feel Browns WR Amari Cooper $6,100 shows up every week when I sit down to pick a squad! I’d never sit here and flesh out an entire roster for you because you have players you ride with, right? I perceive these as the best value plays to build your team around. Who you got?
In terms of teams I have that are successful, I have Travis Kelce and Lamar Jackson. I think I’m 5-1 and don’t even have to check my phone to see if I’m hanging in there with guys like that on one of my teams. My other teams are middling to bad otherwise because I don’t have those guys on those teams. I’m kidding; there are viable fantasy strategies that don’t involve those two players; it’s just that I haven’t found them. I’ll also add that that team has Run CMC, Saquon Barkley, and Jaylen Waddle. You can wind up with powerful rosters when everyone else is auto-drafting! How’s your season going?
Every week, my wife and I sit down and try to predict the winners of each of the games. Here’s this week’s video.