DraftKings Sportsbook has the Indianapolis Colts as 9-point underdogs as they host the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11.
If Colts fans are being honest, this is a generous line. At best, this is a trap game for the Eagles. At worst, the Colts could be run out of the building by a team playing at a different level.
With that said, the Eagles thrive on the ground, and the Colts’ defense has done a nice job limiting opponent running games. Jalen Hurts is dangerous with the ball in his own hands, which makes the task more complicated, so there is no guarantee that the solid performance against running backs has the same application against this team.
What could make the Eagles scary in the passing game is the heavy use of tight is Dallas Goedert. To this point in the season, the Colts have been most susceptible to weapons that work the seams or try to exploit matchups with linebackers in coverage. Goedert has been one of the biggest receiving weapons at the tight end position in 2022 and will create issues for the Colts' defense, especially in the middle of the field.
The other big issue for the Colts in this game is the propensity for turnovers. This offense is giving up the ball far too frequently, and the Eagles' defense has been thriving on turnovers this season.
The Colts cannot afford to allow Philadelphia to run up the score early. An early deficit will unleash the Eagles' pass rush and could create a spiral that Indianapolis won’t recover from. The best way to do this, protect the football and take advantage of a Philadelphia rush defense that has been giving up 5.2 yards per carry - good for the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Ball control and ball security will be key, and the defense has to keep the Eagles close throughout the game. If not, it’s likely the Eagles will cover the 9-point spread.