Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 12

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Happy Holidays! Happy Thanksgiving! My name is Jared Malott and I’ve been here with Stampede Blue for five years now! Thank you for not complaining to the point where Vox reconsiders! Don’t start now! Anyway, my wife and I record a video each week during the NFL season picking the winners of each game. Here’s this week’s video!

Here’s my first appearance in a podcast since the firing of Frank Reich. The Coltist is a nearly weekly podcast fellow Stampede Blue writer Mateo Caliz and I record typically within about 48 hours after a game is played. I upload the raw, unedited version on YouTube and always tell myself I’m going to learn how to cut audio and serve a wider audience of listeners. You’ll have to look at our ugly mugs for now and watch it raw. If you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe to my channel to help it grow. Let’s set a goal of 500 subscribers and then I’ll include graphics and upload the podcast to multiple outlets?

SPORTS BETTING

Usually the NFL is pretty chalk with the occasional underdog story. This year it’s the most chaotic I can recall. It feels like very few offenses can protect their quarterback. It’s either that or employ an athlete at the position so that’s not as much of a concern. I feel like a lot of defenses are playing outstanding football. I have stayed away from betting over/under and with limited exception, have largely just used the same betting patterns I’ve always used. I try to avoid betting on contests with tight spreads because Vegas knows, right? My rule of thumb is if the spread is greater than 3 points, we are gambling (meaning I’d consider betting the game, not that I’ll bet it).

Thanksgiving Day - Speaking of Underdogs

Today, for example, I would take the Detroit Lions +9.5 at home not because I think they’ll beat the Buffalo Bills, but because I like Dan Campbell. I think the Detroit faithful will keep Ford Field buzzing because this will be a close game. I’d bet the New York Giants +10 on the road in the house that Jerry built again not because I think the Giants will win, but because the Cowboys just had a big game against the Vikings and success is just as draining as failure. My brain is telling me to also bet the New England Patriots to win on the road because Bill Belichick is still the head coach. It’s that simple. Enjoy the games!

The Rest of Week 12

On Sunday, I expect the Dolphins -13.5 to run up the score on the Texans. I’d take the Ravens -3.5 on the road against the Jaguars. I think the Bengals -2.5 blow out the Titans on the road. In a heel turn fashion, I would take the Bears +6 against the Jets having QB trouble. It’s not that I think the Bears will win, it’s that it’s hard to justify a touchdown spread when one team has benched its QB. Savvy? Additionally, I like the Commanders, Chargers, Seahawks, Chiefs, 49ers and Eagles to win their games. I’m torn on the Colts/Steelers on Monday Night Football. What do you think?

DAILY FANTASY FOOTBALL

If you read this blog, you’ll realize that I haven’t posted a roster or shown a full team all year because until my methodology works regularly, I’m going to keep tinkering with my strategy. I think DFS is more challenging than full season fantasy football. This week I like Joe Burrow $6,700, Washington’s Antonio Gibson $5,400 and Terry McLaurin $5,800 (why?) along with Greg Dulcich $3,700 as a solid base to my roster this week. The Jets DST $3,700 has a soft matchup as well. From there, you can fill out your roster with good value baked in and maybe win some coin! Let me know how it goes!

FANTASY FOOTBALL

I had an epiphany before this season started in that as fantasy footballers, we should “just make sure to get our guy” that way we don’t look like idiots among our peers for petering out down the stretch like some of these NFL teams are about to do. Unfortunately, I only did that in one league, am 7-4 and my lineup every week is largely set it and forget it because I have Lamar Jackson and Travis Kelce bookending my otherwise typical dominate lineup.

In two other “competitive” environments, our staff league and a little $20 cash league I’m in with some friends, I chose more traditional draft strategies like 0RB and 0QB and specifically am having problems at those positions in those leagues and instead of it costing us a week here and there, it’s a glaring issue, much like the Colts LT situation, amirite? I will explore my new strategy this next season and report back my findings.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Jared Malott