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Pittsburgh Steelers v Indianapolis Colts Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


Well, the bad news is that I got COVID. The good news is that because I was sick, I didn’t watch most of the game.

After4 incompletions, a sack, and a pick, Ryan finally got it together. While his EPA efficiency is poor, his success rate was actually above average.

He was just marginally better than he was against the Eagles . . . which wasn’t good.

I find it hard to believe that there are 7 other QBs with worse season EPA efficiency than Ryan. Let that be a lesson, it can always get worse.


Just like last week, completing passes was not the problem. It was just that they were too short and there was not enough YAC to make up for it.

Depth of targets and completions has held steady for the last 3 weeks in the “nobody’s open” range.


He was so close to a 100-yard receiver.


Accuracy dipped a bit, but if the incompletions I saw are any measure, then drops had an impact on that.


He held the ball for a long time.


Just like most of the year, he had more success on passes > 10 yards.


Comparisons are out of the 32 teams that have played through Sunday night.

Mouseover for definitions: opd, edp, arsr, ttt, adot, 20+, cmp%, cpoe, ay/c, yac, yacoe, ypa, pr%, ta%, scr%, sk%, aa%, ny/d, to%, 1st%, td%, rze, orze, 20+e, psr, epa/d

The run game ticked up (10th ARSR), but Ryan still saw a good amount of pressure (13th pr%). He held the ball a long time, but threw short passes (7th TTT, 23rd ADOT), effectively being a check-down Charlie.

His accuracy dropped (21st CPOE), which partially accounts for low receiver YAC (29th YAC, 30th YACOE). That all rolls up to a 25th-ranked YPA. The pressure resulted in a high sack rate, further depressing dropback efficiency (11th sk%, 26th ny/d).

He turned the ball over, didn’t throw many firsts, and didn’t throw many TDs (12th to%, 20th 1st%, 25th td%), which is sort of the worst of all worlds.

Throw that all in a pot and you get the 25th-worst EPA efficiency. Relative to the much higher success rate, that points to the fact that the negative plays were veeery negative and the positive plays... not so much.