For me it’s this simple. Now that the timing has hit where we will have a top pick, and a clear need at QB. Meaning it’s darn certain we draft one. Do I want Ballard picking the player and HC/OC, a retread GM, or an unproven one? For me the answer is clear, Give me Ballard.
With that settled I will say like always I consider his style and nature when making my mocks, although I’m less concerned with handicapping him and being right, and more so just listing spots I think my preferences and his might intersect.
Starting with our HC search I think Ballard would agree it needs to be an offensive minded hire. Not just because we have a more glaring need on that side. More so because ideally we are pairing a rookie QB with the same person for many years. If we hire a defensive HC or Saturday. We will have to rely on finding a good OC, but likely losing them quick with any success. So here’s my short list.
Sean Payton-
You get pedigree and experience here. I just don’t see him settling for our market, unless we had a Luck in house, which we don’t. Just want to mention I’m on board if he’s the guy.
Kellen Moore and Byron Leftwich-
What I like about these two Vs the pack of other OC hot names. Is that both have been in role for some time, not just being judged off 1 big season. I also like that both are former players still youthful to connect with the locker room. They also both come from schemes that can move the ball without a stud running QB. I think both would certainly do so with the proper athlete, but I’m just saying they offer tools beyond that. Which are still very important.
I will take Moore as I’ve enjoyed what I’ve seen of Dallas lately. However, I could really go either way with who interviews best. Then I’m assuming he brings in his choice of OC, but we retain Reggie, Bubba, and Gus.
Projected Cap- 35 mil.
Cuts-
Matt Ryan- 17 mil savings.
Updated Projected Cap- 52 mil.
Resigns-
Yannick Ngakoue- 3 years, 45 mil, 15 mil per.
Paris Campbell- 2 years 14 mil, 7 mil per.
Bobby Okereke- 4 yrs, 18 mil, 4.5 mil per
Chase McLaughlin- 1 yr 3.5 mil
E.J. Speed- 2 yrs, 4 mil, 2 mil per.
Tyquan Lewis- 1yr, 2 mil
Deon Jackson- 2 yrs, 4mil, 2 mil per.
Updated Projected Cap Space- 16 mil
Let Them Walk-
Brandon Fayscon-
Rodney McLeod-
Ashton Dulin-
Matt Pryor-
Ben Banogu-
Trades I’m Making-
Mo Cox to the Dolphins for a 2023 5th round pick. 5.5 mil savings. The Dolphins will lose Mike Gesicki this offseason, and should be interested buyers in a player like Cox who profiles as a bigger impact in the blocking department. I’d take a 7th tbh for the cap space, but this seems about right. Cox didn’t exactly have the best 2022 to demand more.
Ryan Kelly and Nick Foles to Seattle for Noah Fant and a 2023 7th round pick. 8.5 mil savings. The Seahawks have 0 QBs under contract for next season. It’s not unreasonable to think they would take on Foles as an acceptable poison pill addition to this deal. They also have a crowded TE room with Dissely, Fant, and Parkinson. Seeming to prefer the other twos playstyle or this scheme, as Fants production hit a wall post Denver. They aren’t flush at OL or C so I think they’d gladly take this deal. For us we get out of 2 bad contracts, and receive a young TE with the athletic profile of former Colt Eric Ebron.
Updated Projected Cap Space- 30 mil
2023 Unrestricted Free Agency-
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson- S/CB- Philadelphia- 5 years, 70 mil, 14 mil per.
It’s never a safe bet to mock a top player in the NFL in FA, for numerous reasons, sometimes things we don’t even think about as fans carry the most weight for these players. It could also be considered pretty un-Ballard like to spend this much over those years. However, I don’t think so. He’d have signed Buckner for example in FA. It’s just players like that don’t hit FA often due to the tag, and teams typically trading guys a year or two out from FA to a new home. Which is what happened to CGJ (and Buck). He started a Saint, but was dealt to Philly and since has broken out as a star. Can they tag him? I’m sure after some cap gymnastics they could. Although they look set to only have 15 mil for 2023 as is, and are definitely not getting Hurts on the field again for his current wage imo.
So let’s say we can sign him. Should we? My obvious take is yes. However, I also am listing CGJ as the top end option to what is also a placeholder for many names, all cheaper. Jessie Bates, Terrell Edmunds, Nasir Adderly, and quite a few more nice young safties are set to hit FA. The CB market as of now also looks solid, with names like Jamel Dean, Marcus Peters, James Bradberry, Byron Murphy, RYS, Sean M-Bunting, and a few more set to be FAs. Whomever it is, if we retain Gus Bradley, we are only doing ourselves a disservice to not offer him premium secondary players. CGJ is just that as truly hybrid style athlete capable of lining up anywhere in the secondary. With a knack for creating turnovers. With Moore and Gilmore only under contract one more season. Hedging them with a nice young player should be a priority. With the QB need, that means it must come from FA or wait til 2024.
Nate Davis- RG- Tennessee- 4 years, 28 mil, 7 mil per.
Davis is less of a placeholder, and more so the guy I’ve zeroed in on after sorting through this FA OL class. I don’t believe KC let’s Orlando Brown Jr see FA. Packers are likely to be aggressive in retaining Elton Jenkins, the Falcons in a similar spot with Khaleb McGary. NE might let Isiah Wynn hit FA, but then the real questions hit. Do we want to lock up 15mil + for a 6’2" OT that’s had an up and down injury riddled career so far? Would he even play RG if Raimann beats him out? Some of these guys like Wynn and Jenkins would make for stellar Gs, it’s just they dint want to hear that. They want OT money. Then you have a few LGs out there like Risner that could also be targets. I’d take a cpl of them, Risner himself as the preffered.
All the while Nate Davis is out there as a plus 26 yr old option, that currently plays RG at a high level within our division. Kills two birds with one stone. Weaken the Titans, and fixes the mistake of not replacing Glow and Reed adequately. Would it be cool to find some franchise plug and play LT? Sure, but I think we have a future guy in Raimann already, and more so just need to get the rest of the house in order up front. It may sound cynical, but we aren’t winning a SB with a rookie QB. So this is all about having things right by 2024 and beyond. I’d rather fix the interior, and let the young LT play out. Worst case we have our 2024 1st round pick to project for LT if needed.
Yosh Nijman- OT- Green Bay- 2 years, 8 mil, 4 mil per.
With everything I said above. That doesn’t mean we don’t need LT depth still, or that the depth shouldn’t be someone possibly capable of winning the job. Nijman is the type of athlete Ballard fawns over at the position. He’s been a spot player on both sides of the line for GB for a couple of years now. They seem to like him, just can’t get him a starting position with Bahkitari and Jenkins both healthy. They have a lot of needs, with little cap, so it’s plausible Nijman slips free, and if so we should jump. Is it likely he beats out Raimann or even Braden Smith? No, but it’s possible which is enough of a HR for me.
Charles Omenihu- DL- San Francisco- 1 yr, 4 mil
Omenihu was a player many fell in love with in the predraft process, and vaulted in projections from mid rounder to early rounder, ultimately ending up as a 5th round pick. In that process I was a naysayer about him as a player, essentially seeing a freak athlete that didn’t play football the right way. Thinking he’d take a lot of time or may not work out at all. Now years later, on his 2nd team, he’s finding success playing a role for a good defense. With his athleticism, and size still a plus, I wouldn’t mind grabbing him at this stage of his career, and hoping for the best. This is a signing right up Ballards alley.
L.J. Collier- DE- Seattle- 1 year 2 mil.
I gave Ballard and you guys Omenihu as the wildcard DL signing that makes loads of sense. You guys give me this one as Collier was a draft lust of mine from years past. He’s done absolutely nothing to justify it as a pro, but this is a dart id like to throw.
Updated Projected Cap Space- Technically I put us over the cap by a mil, however, with a 4 year and 5 year contract in the mix, and other long term deals in house to play with, there’s a ton of options that would free up 4-5 mil for season operating costs.
2023 NFL Draft-
Draft order based on me using the season predictor tool, having the Colts win 1 more game Vs Houston, finishing 5-11-1. Full top 10 order finished as Houston 1st, Chicago 2nd, ATL and Denver tied for 3rd, Indy 5th, and the Raiders, Steelers, Rams, Lions, and Saints all tied for picks 6-10.
Not to beat a dead horse, but if there’s anyway Bryce Young slips to #2 past Houston, we no doubt should pull down our pants and go get him. Especially if a team like Chicago not looking at QB holds the pick. Since that’s too easy to count on, let’s say Bryce goes #1 and Stroud #3 to ATL which I’m less concerned with.
Round 1- Pick 5- Tanner McKee- QB- Stanford- 6’6" 228lbs-
Since my last post about the current crop of QBs, I’ve continued to follow them a bit closer. As of this moment Tanner McKee holds my #2 ranking above Will Levis, and is widening the gap. Even though McKee is a big guy in the traditional mold of QB. I love his quickness going through the motions. He is by no means unathletic, even capable of occasional designed runs and elongated plays. As I said in that last post, he’s not quite surefire Josh Allen, but that’s the playstyle, and what his NFL deployment should look like. With any luck, body development, and confidence fostered that upside comp is technically in reach. I just can’t promise it. What I do feel better about is the non athletic side of things. McKee throws a nice quick ball, makes solid decisions, and seems to be accurate all over the field, sideline to sideline.
I do worry a bit about his length leading to leg injuries with the current game demanding athletic risky QB play, although it really comes down to his IQ in handling himself. So by no means a disqualifier. Another nice perk to McKees game, is I don’t see a lot holding him back from early snaps. Like Allen you want him to face his mental lumps early, and hope to get a stronger and smarter version of him down the line. Since I can’t find a single reason to say he shouldn’t translate or only get better. I think whether we luck up to 5th, or land around 10 and need to jump up a tad. We should aggressively make sure Tanner McKee ends up a Colt earlier in the draft than later. There’s too many smart guys in the league not to see this is probably the Justin Herbert of this class.
Alternate Pick- Trade back a tad for Will Levis
Trade Back-
Lions Give- 2023 2nd (41ish), and 2023 2nd via MIN (60ish).
Colts Give- 2023 2nd (36th), 2023 3rd via Wash (80ish), and 2023 7th.
Round 2- Pick 41 via DET- John Michael Schmitz- C- Minnesota- 6’4" 320lbs-
I’m sure there are some that think creating a bigger hole at C by trading Kelly would be a mistake. Hey, you might be right. However, I think Ryan Kelly’s play has been a huge part of our OL downfall. He’s probably a great guy, and I do feel for some of his tribulations he’s faced. However, we saw it with Andrew Luck before Kelly was acquired, and we are seeing it now just how much poor C/IOL play can handicap an entire offense. No doubt a more mobile QB would/will help, as would better RG and LT play. However, this position is the leader of that group, and any scenario that has me pulling the strings for this offseason will start with getting younger, stronger, bigger, and more athletic at C. I want to do it as early as possible too, to ensure we get someone capable of early playing time.
Both Schmitz and Wypler form OSU pass my eye test. We won’t know who is #1 and #2 until the combine, or if another name jumps into the conversation. For now though I like Schmitz due to his plus size for the position, hopefully putting an end to early blow ups plaguing our interior. It’s hard to do better than Q, JMS, and Nate Davis. We still need Braden to be Braden, and Raimann to get stronger. Plus some depth probably. However, this is how I’d approach fixing what was once recently a great OL.
Alternate Pick- Luke Wypler
Round 2- Pick 60 via DET/MIN- Jalin Hyatt- WR- Tennessee- 6’0" 180lbs-
I can’t really figure out why the media isn’t higher on Jalin Hyatt. I’ve certainly seen less dangerous and talented players go round 1. Tennessee does have a crowded offense to dissect in terms of who is pushing the wagon Vs riding along. Hyatt’s speed and skillset is also something more common place in more recent drafts. So it’s possible he completes the entire draft process without a meteoric rise. If that is to occur I hope Ballard can get past his slighter stature, and gladly take a key weapon for the future.
When I watch Tenn I think he’s the best player on the field, and a big reason Hooker has played well on paper. He can miss on half of the deep plays, and still convert a few each game due to Hyatt, that quickly add up to eye popping stats. We will need to wait for the combine to see how Hyatt exactly stacks up, but the eye test tells me he will test well, and I’m not concerned one bit about his speed translating. He reminds me of a less polished Devonta Smith quite a bit, and on the low end I think he’s a surefire Will Fuller type of a player from day 1. He’d enter a crowded room here, but I believe in time he’d leap above Campbell for that role, and make for a nice long term deep weapon/gimmick outlet for any rookie QB.
Trade Up-
Colts Give- 2023 Round 4, 2023 Round 5, and 2023 Round 6
Vikings Give- 2023 Round 3 (pick 92ish)
Round 3- Pick 92 via MIN- Anthony Richardson- QB- Florida- 6’3" 225lbs-
Not only is Richardson considered a 1st round pick by many media outlets, but we just took a QB in round 1. As for the 1st issue. Anthony Richardson is not a 1st round QB, and is probably 2 years off from having any chance to develop properly as a passer. He is a mess in that department for college football and would be best suited to return for his redshirt Junior season, maybe even Senior too. A transfer out of the SEC may even help his cause quite a bit. On any tape viewing you will likely see no less than 10 inaccurate throws, or outright misses. With recent rumors saying he’s likely to enter the draft Vs transfer to get out of Florida. You have to wonder about his overall IQ and work ethic. If he’s willing to risk being a mid round pick Vs betting on himself to earn a top draft spot by his play. Based on current tape there’s nothing to suggest he’s not years away mentally as well. So let’s set aside the first issue for a moment.
On the other hand I said before that I like Richardson, even listed him as late 1st-2nd round grade. Since that post nothing much has changed. If anything I want him more. Not because he looked more complete Vs FSU or more recent games, but because he reaffirmed where I was already at on him, making it clearer where to value him. Which is at this stage. I do not trust him to be our only QB taken, or a 1st round pick, but still think in many ways he’s the most talented set of traits in the entire class. If he slides to this point or close, which I do believe Is possible. I’m running the pick in. Out of the gate he’s a special enough runner to have a package of plays for, including 4th and short talent.
It’s really not entirely implausible he’s a RB or WR one day if things take a certain turn. However, I’m going to stick with what I think can and hopefully would happen. AR would serve his package role, and make for a heck of a backup in time, essentially baseline offering us a healthy power run option scheme in our back pocket. Paired with our stingy D. With any luck he could be our do it all guy in a cpl of years, or just an ultra useful #2 that becomes trade bait eventually. Either way whenever he turns pro, I think he has special traits someone out there can shine into some treasure. Like generationally scary arm talent, and poor man’s Lamar running type special, not just kinda impressive. It’s just really inconsistent, riddled with poor technique, and currently displayed on a team that gives up about as much pressure as we do.
Round 5- Via Miami- Chris Rodriguez- 5’11" 224lbs-
I dont love the idea of spending a pick on RB Vs defense or OL depth. I just really like this player, and have watched him closely for a few years now. In many ways he is similar to the last great UK RB, Benny Snell. However, I think he’s more athletic and hope to see that come combine time. I’m not looking for 1st round numbers, but if he checks out reasonably. I’m prioritizing adding him. He is your poor man’s Johnathon Taylor, and for his current team the actual real thing often carrying their load.
I was one of the few quite pleased we dealt Hines away. Primarily due to the conundrum his presence caused. He’s a nice scat option, but just not good enough rushing to maintain any mystery to the playcall with JT on this roster. If Hines is in the game you can basically bet your house it’s a pass, and most likely some screen or gimmick designed for him, or a misdirect off of him. I’d prefer we deploy JT and his backups in the same fashion, meaning they all catch and run, not specialize at 1. By adding a similar player like Rodriguez and retaining Deon Jackson. I think we’d be set to go 3 men deep without changing the scheme for anyone. Then leave the super gimmicky stuff to the WR core.
Round 7- Via Seattle- OT
Round 7- Via Wash- S
Priority UDFA- Hit OL, DE, and secondary hard.
Conclusion-
Ballard is huge on physical traits, and athleticism. Making Tanner McKee a likely target on a CB list. Then in Ballard fashion I hit the need twice, and doubled down on adding more top end traits to the position with AR15 later. I’d love if it came true, however, set aside AR15 for a moment, as McKee is the star of this mock. Do I think he can be a franchise QB? Yes I do. I just also think with him being an on script QB first, and a yet to be gauged off script ceiling. We must go all in on building for him. Something we didn’t do for Wentz or Ryan. The weapons Ryan was given this season sure could have helped in 2021 to decide our future, and with Ryan I’d have added more veteran influence to the O.
That is what I’d be most proud about in this mock. Short of a surefire franchise LT, what more could I give a rookie pocket passer? 2 young Uber athletic LTs to grow with, star LG, stud rookie C to grow with, Top 12 RG, Top 10 RT. As for weapons we retain JT, Pittman, Pierce, Campbell, Woods, Gransen, and D Jackson. While adding Noah Fant and Jalin Hyatt as two more athletic field stretching mismatch pieces. It would take some time to al gel, but imo that would be a rock solid group to watch progress. AR15 in the 3rd would just be the Cherry on top. Worst case scenario he could save McKee some hits, and serve a very useful role on 4th downs. Best case scenario he ends our guy, whether McKee outright fails or simply fails to outplay him. You never know, but I’d imagine the former scenario being most likely.
I honestly planned on kicking the can on defense. I doubt one or 2 players will be the difference in us winning a SB with a rookie QB anyways. It’s just if we don’t give up on Raimann and find an Orlando Brown Jr type to add. We’d have a decent amount of cap to roll over or toss around. Since I’d rather draft another WR than buy one, and in swapping Fant for Cox, I don’t think adding more at TE makes sense. I’m not really sure Gesicki or Shultz is better than Fant anyways, especially not at 2-3x the cap hit. So for me it was just as simple as if a real game changer that projects to stick around 3+ years hits the market. We have no reason to be complacent, as we’d have our rookie QB contract window, and stand to recoup a lot of dead space going forward as well.
What do you guys think?
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