As of this writing, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Jacksonville Jaguars at 3-point dogs in Nashville as they face the Tennessee Titans. In other AFC South betting news, the Texans are carrying a 17-point spread against the Dallas Cowboys, which is the largest spread of the week by more than a touchdown.
With the Colts on a Bye, the best possible outcome would be for the Jaguars to come out on top against the Titans and the Texans to overcome incredible odds to beat the Cowboys. The first of those two outcomes is entirely possible. In betting parlance, a three-point spread favoring the home team is the equivalent of no spread on a neutral field. Even if the Texans did find a way to upset the Cowboys, it is asking a lot to see them go on a run the rest of the season to gift the Colts somehow the first-overall pick — assuming Indy would find a way to lose out.
Some bets that could make sense in the Jaguars vs. Titans game include the Jaguars covering the three-point spread, Derrick Henry rushing for more than 88.5 yards, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine producing more than 30.5 receiving yards, and Christian Kirk tallying a touchdown reception.
If Henry has a bad day, it’s a good sign for the Jaguars, as they would rather put the bulk of the responsibility on Ryan Tannehill to win the game — even if Jacksonville’s defense has been a disaster much of the season. One that the Jags can do relatively well is pressure the quarterback, so it would certainly help their upset chances.
The most attractive bets in the Houston Texans game are for Texans to cover a 17-point spread, Davis Mills to throw for over 190.5 yards, Tony Pollard to rush for more than 67.5 yards, Dameon Pierce to rush for more than 63.5 yards, Chris Moore to have more than 31.5 receiving yards, and CeeDee Lamb to have more than 68.5 receiving yards.
Ultimately, the Texans will have to pass the ball, as they will likely be trailing for the entire game. Houston is not particularly gifted at receiver or tight end, which likely means that Dameon Pierce will remain involved in their offense no matter the score. Also, someone will have to try to keep the Cowboys’ pass rush from pinning their ears back the whole game, so Pierce will likely get opportunities for the purpose alone.
Otherwise, none of the player prop bets involve particularly outlandish projections. Generally, expect a lot of offense for Dallas and the Texans’ pass defense to limit the Cowboys’ passing offense more than one might expect.