As of this writing, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Colts as 3.5-point underdogs in Minnesota on Saturday. Given how good the Vikings' offense has been, how badly the Cowboys abused the Colts' defense, and how weak the offense has been with Matt Ryan under center — it’s a pretty friendly line.
To be clear, take the Vikings to cover. It’s one of the safest bets this week. If you want easier money, I suppose you could go with the Vikings money line. However, the payout will be considerably worse.
The upset chance is still out there. Look, this is a Colts team that beat the Chiefs earlier this season and had the Eagles on the ropes. It’s a team that has thrived on being defensively stingy and on getting big plays occasionally that put points on the board. The Vikings are a team that allows almost every one of their opponents to score points and pick up an occasional big play.
So, there is a legitimate chance the Colts' offense could score more than twenty points, and if that happens, all bets are off. This is, of course, assuming that the Colts’ defense struts its stuff circa early-midseason 2022 and not whatever it has been doing the last few games.
Ultimately, the defense needs to hold Cousins and the Vikings' high-powered offense to 27 or fewer points to have any chance. This would allow Jefferson to do his thing, over 100 and at least one touchdown, without giving away the game. Perhaps a touchdown to Hockenson, a goal line carry to Cook, and a few Red Zone stands could get it done.
This assumes that Matt Ryan can keep his jersey relatively clean, avoid turnovers - no more than one is the target here - and Jonathan Taylor can turn in a powerful performance to start gaining a head of steam into 2023. Look for Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods to play bigger roles in the game if the Colts hope to upset the Vikings, with Michael Pittman Jr. still the most consistent and targeted pass catcher on the roster.
Player prop bets in this one include any-time touchdowns for Taylor and Jefferson, Kirk Cousins having completion of over 38.5 yards, Taylor rushing for more than 83.5 yards, Justin Jefferson having more than 94.5 receiving yards, and Greg Joseph making more than 2.5 PATs.