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Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 15

A Weekly Fantasy Football, Daily Fantasy and Sports Betting Blog

Indianapolis Colts v Dallas Cowboys Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images

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Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You are reading this on a Saturday because there is an NFL game at 1pm today. And 4:30pm. And even 8:15pm tonight! Wake up it’s game day!?

Before anyone asks, this week’s header photo is of Matt Ryan for a reason. I think he’s exactly the man for the job. He’s shown that he is careless with the football and we all know that turnovers are frequently the difference in these games. You can rely on Matt Ryan, at least this year, anyway, to give away the football and when you’re vying for a Top 5 pick with which to replace him, he’s going to deliver because that’s what once-great franchise quarterbacks do. They do what is best for the organization. Apparently Indianapolis is where aging quarterbacks go to get taken to pasture. I think it’s high time the Colts invest a 1st round draft pick in a signal-caller, don’t you?

Moving along!

Sports Betting

Today’s Games

Only a fool would bet on the Colts +3.5 coming off a bye week healthy against the over-performing Vikings -3.5, on the Ravens +2.5 without Lamar Jackson on the road against the suddenly QB-heavy Browns -2.5, and on the Dolphins +7 on the road against the current Super Bowl favorite Bills -7 to straight up win. However, I have a standing rule that if the spread is 3 points or greater, we are (probably) gambling. Therefore, I would absolutely take the Colts and Dolphins to straight-up win on the road today because I’d also take them with the points (see Rule 1). Understand, though, that Vegas says neither of these things are happening and you see what their houses look like, right?

The reason I suggest taking them all is because of the odds.

It’s difficult to win football games, especially at the pro level. I really like Baltimore as an organization, but the Ravens are going to lose today I think and it hurts to type that because I don’t want to believe it. I think the Ravens can beat the Browns even without Lamar Jackson, but can the Ravens beat the Browns with their glut of QBs? This is why there are rules and when I don’t believe what the rules are telling me, it’s like I know, right? You either buy the organizational hype and think that beats individual star power at this level and come back to this thread when that game ends. The Browns -2.5 should win today at home, but I’d take the Ravens +2.5 to keep it interesting.

Rest of the Weekend

Vegas certainly thinks the Eagles -8.5 and Chiefs -14.5 win big Sunday and I agree with both, but hate betting on nearly or double digit favorites to win because I don’t find that interesting. I WANT TO BET ON THE UNDERDOG to keep it close or win every time. Frequently, that is not what happens. Dallas -4 is a road favorite and I believe they’ll win, but don’t like that number 4. The Lions +1 should win the QB battle and notch a super important win on the road against a game opponent. I’m not a believer in Zach Wilson and think the world of a guy like Mike White, but he’s only there in spirit today, so Detroit could move to 7-7 with this win!

Desmond Ridder makes his first start for the Falcons +4 on the road against the Saints -4 and again, I’m not a fan of that number. I’m not at all suggesting a rookie QB wins his first start on the road in a Division contest, I’m just not big on 4 today is all and there’s a lot of them! Carolina -3 should also win at home today against a Steelers +3 team without its QB. Always bet on Bill Belichick to take your soul and his Patriots +1 on the road against the hapless Raiders -1 just look ripe for the picking. Makes me sick.

Ewww, gross. Broncos -1.5/Cardinals +1.5 for slop fest of the week. Joe Burrow and the Bengals -3.5 should win on the road against the Bucs +3.5, but I expect this will be a close game, so I’m more thinking about betting on the Bungles straight-up. The Titans +3 are on the road against the Chargers -3 and I agree. I like the Chargers as outside looking in and the Titans are just on the inside looking out. The Titans are looking like an early round playoff exit.

I don’t normally say this, but I’m actually excited to bet on the Giants +4.5 and the Rams +7 on the road on Sunday and Monday night. Road underdogs this week, I’m telling you!

It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

Fantasy Football

To keep it succinct, I can’t wait for next year. As I’ve said before, I normally have about 20 different fantasy football leagues going and this year, I’m only in three leagues and only one of them was a cash league. The only league I had any measurable success is the league where I got my guys. I broke some unwritten rules and made sure I took guys like Lamar Jackson and Travis Kelce in spots where there were just a bunch of other guys, right? You also have to get lucky and be able to get Geno Smith as your backup QB and have McCaffery AND Barkley at RB. Best of luck to you and your playoff fantasy football teams!

Daily Fantasy Sports

Each week, I try not to just give you a full roster. I’ll try to build my own, find a good foundation for you to try your hand using just a few guys. For the first time this year, it feels like, I’m actually feeling the Colts/Vikings matchup because it’s indoors! First, the Vikings D/ST is an easy pick because the Colts love to cough up the football. I like Matt Ryan, though, and Michael Pittman, Jr and Jelani Woods all for great value against one of the league’s worst defenses. My heavy hitters are JT and Justin Jefferson. See! Here’s a great foundation for a winning roster! Yes, it looks homerish but realize this is the first week this year I can recall where I looked at Colts players as valuable DFS assets. I’m fully prepared to eat crow. I did eat leftover turkey for like a week after Thanksgiving. Same same, right?

If I haven’t said it before and you do celebrate, have the happiest of holidays!

As an addendum, my wife and I have been sitting down and predicting these games together going on five years now. Here’s our video for this week’s games. Enjoy!