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Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 16

A Weekly Fantasy Football, Daily Fantasy and Sports Betting Blog (Christmas Edition)

Indianapolis Colts v Minnesota Vikings Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

First, happy holidays to you and yours! Merry Christmas if you celebrate and to all a Happy New Year while we’re at it! We’ll certainly see you before then, but I figure I’d stick that in there, too.

Second, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available.

Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Speaking of gambling, I’m betting not a lot of eyes will see this today because it’s a holiday, so it’s a perfect time to announce that I’ll be taking my body to Charlotte, North Carolina the first week or so of January to attend my first AFCA (American Football Coaches Association) Annual Conference seminar. Additionally, I’ll be meeting up with the tribe from Soldiers to Sidelines (a 501c3 aimed at putting veterans on NFL sidelines). Your boy may be a real deal football coach one day after all! I have my eye on asking to volunteer at a local Division II college with the intent of starting my coaching career in the near year. I’ll keep you posted.

Oh and hey! I got accepted back to Purdue (yes, this near-Neanderthal was a freshman at Purdue just over 20 years ago now) and start classes in January to study Analytics (IT). My VA benefits cover all but about $600 of my costs for the next 18 months as a full time student! How about that? They say you get nothing for serving but bragging rights and life-threatening health conditions. Ha! That and!

Every week, my wife and I record a video where we pick the winners of each of the NFL games. Here’s this week’s video.

Sports Betting

Today (Saturday in case you, too have lost track of days)

It’s 4 degrees in Chicago at 10:30am this Saturday morning with 21MPH winds means it feels like -17 outside and I think the weather might impact the passing game at Soldier Field. The Buffalo Bills -8 are heavy road favorites and I just think Josh Allen’s got it in him to put the ball in the end zone a time or two more and flatly, get this game over with quickly.

The Seattle Seahawks +8 are heavy road underdogs, 1-4 in their last 5 games and are facing a red-hot Kansas City Chiefs -8 at home in comfy (relative to Chicago) conditions at currently 7 degrees and an 8MPH wind means it’s -6 outside. Normally I bet the heavy road underdog here out of a force of habit. Similarly, I think Patrick Mahomes can just score a time or two more in this game than a Geno Smith-led offense at this point by the numbers. A whooping is coming, as they say.

You already know I’m going to write about taking the Detroit Lions -2.5 on the road against the Carolina Panthers +2.5 in even nicer conditions at home in Charlotte at 25 degrees by gametime! Jared Goff is underrated and heavily disrespected. That chip on the shoulder is a helluva motivator, is it not?

You had better believe Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals -3 handle the New England Patriots +3 at home in Foxboro. Normally, I’d advise against betting on Bill Belichick to lose, but like I’ve said all season long. Joe Burrow is on a different path and as a result, so are the Bengals.

Lastly in terms of today, the Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 are on the road tonight against the Dallas Cowboys -4.5 without Jalen Hurts (who might miss a game or two here to end the season) and instead, the Eagles are starting Gardner Minshew over the only other QB on their roster Ian Book, the winningest QB in Notre Dame history by the way, today and for the near future, anyway. I’d bet on the Cowboys -4 and think Dak notches a Division win at home today. Gardner Minshew, huh? In honor of the late Mike Leach (RIP).


Tomorrow’s (Sunday) games are some snoozers, huh? Anyway yeah I’d bet on the Miami Dolphins -3.5 to handle their business at home against the Green Bay Packers +3.5 because I want the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to lose and miss the Playoffs not because he’s a misinformation spreading vaccine denier but because it increases his volatility and the probability that he’ll leave Green Bay and thus, chaos. That’s all I’m asking for. CHAOS.

Sunday afternoon, the absolute bottom of the West in their respective Divisions LA Rams +3 host the Denver Broncos -3. It’s important to note that Aaron Donald is out for the Rams. I can’t even pick who loses and wins here. No one wins in this game. The QBs aren’t real. I’ll say it. This game could get... wait for it... CHAOTIC. No, no... don’t click away. Read the rest.

On Sunday night, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7.5 are on the road in Arizona to battle the Cardinals and you know, you’d have to be absolutely insane to bet against Tom Brady with over a 75% chance to win the Division and a trip to the playoffs on the table and I imagine what is going on with the Cardinals is dysfunctional at best, so look for a boring game. The Bucs should run all over the Cardinals tomorrow night. BORING.

On Monday night, just as Jim Irsay asked for publicly, the Indianapolis Colts +4 host the LA Chargers -4 on primetime television and I have a feeling this game could get chippy. I foresee sloppy QB for the Colts and a tough team that wants to stand up for their teammates but ultimately can’t move the ball on offense enough to keep the defense fresh enough to make a difference against a Charger team that still has its Playoff hopes alive.

I think the Colts could very well get gashed and blown out at home. Just throwing that out there. The thing about this is, the Colts don’t need to win here. They should not win here. They have no need to get up 33-0 on a team at all in the first place much less lose the biggest lead in NFL history when you aren’t actively hoping to win that game or make the Playoffs (would be actively bad to reward this unit with a Playoff trip no matter your fanhood). Talk about embarrassing.

My colleague and friend Mateo Caliz and I record a nearly weekly video podcast from different hemispheres discussing the Indianapolis Colts AND the Indiana Pacers! Here’s our latest episode:


There’s actually a few valuable QB plays this week, methinks with Geno Smith $5,800, Kirk Cousins $6,300 and even Jared Goff $5,400. I’d rather have Dak Prescott $6,100 than Kirk Cousin, but you get it. Methinks Alvin Kamara $6,800 might be a splashy play but imagine him running with a 30MPH tailwind. You can otherwise catch me betting on Ezekiel Elliot $6,000 and also on the Cowboys D/ST against the aforementioned Gardner Minshew. Basically Dallas looks good in DFS this week. Haha. It’s not often you can say (in DFS) to bet on the Cowboys D/ST, their QB, and their RB because of their perceived value amidst their peers. They’re also at home in a dome. Smart money, right?


I have but one playoff relevant fantasy football team and so long as Barkley and McCaffery are making noise, you know I’m happy. This playoff team I’m happy because I took the blinders off and just drafted the player I wanted. I admit that I reached a bit for Lamar Jackson and Travis Kelce, as one does. My team blew out the first overall seed by almost 50 points in the opening round of the playoffs. Get your guy. I’m going to keep saying it. That’s my fantasy football draft strategy.

Again, happy holidays to you and yours.