Nick Foles: Of Course He is a Downgrade

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

HOW WELL?

Nick Foles registered a -0.69 EPA per dropback against the Chargers. That is the 2nd worst efficiency by any QB this year. On top of that, he managed a passing success rate that was in the 10th percentile of QB games for 2022. That is what we stat-nerds call “bad”.

Of course, it is not fair to judge Foles by one game, especially when he hasn’t had much practice with the receivers. However, make no mistake, this was a huge drop-off from Ryan’s performance.

I’ve stared at these next graphs for about 5 minutes and I can’t think of anything to say that isn’t self-evident.

HOW FAR?

Last week, I complained about Ryan having a sub-60% completion rate on short passes. Not to be outdone, Foles said, “I’ll see your crappy completion rate, and raise you an even shorter passing depth”. I don’t think he’s bluffing.

At least Foles tried longer pass attempts, he just couldn’t complete them. Of course, the completing aspect of the pass is kind of the important part.

TO WHO?

Well, no one broke 50 yards receiving, but with 8 different receivers, it’s not for a lack of trying.

See that upper right quadrant that is barren of any Colts players? That’s where successful receivers live.

HOW ACCURATE?

Not accurate. Not accurate at all.

HOW FAST?

Release time increased over Ryan, but so did passing length so that’s a wash.

TO WHERE?

The right side of the field was particularly unkind to Foles.

DASHBOARD

He had longer than average attempts (13th adot), but shorter than average completions (22nd ay/c), driven by horrible accuracy (27th cpoe). Mix in terrible YAC (26th) and you get the 3rd worst YPA of the week (30th ypa). Top that off with the week’s highest sack rate and overall yardage efficiency drops to dead last (32nd ny/d).

Sprinkle in a lot of turnovers (5th to%), few 1st down conversions (29th 1st%) and no TDs (tied 29th td%) and you get a perfect storm of efficiency wretchedness that is the worst EPA/d of the week and the 2nd worst of the year.