Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
A few weeks ago, I wrote that as bad as the Colts’ offense was, it could get worse. This is what worse looks like.
The offense could only muster 10 first downs all game, two of them from penalties. In other words, Nick Foles took almost as many sacks as the offense had in scrimmage first downs. If you include turnovers on downs, the Colts had more turnovers than drives without turnovers.
A 50% Drive Success Rate is beyond bad. Only 7 times this year has an offense done worse and of course the Colts hold 2 of those spots (Week 2 Jags, Week 9 Pats).
This is the 10th time this season, that the Colts were held to less than 20 points and the 3rd time to single digits. There seems to be no bottom to this well of sadness.
Color me shocked, but the offense ended up tied for last in PPD this week and if it weren’t for Denver, we would be last in season PPD too. We were also tied for 31st in DSR but solely hold last place in yards per play. However, the Colts were NOT last in EPA per play . . . they were 31st (thanks Chicago!)
This Colts offense is arguably worse than the 2011 team, when they ranked 2 spots higher in PPD and had a higher DVOA. Our coach is not a coach. We live in clown world.
Nick Foles was the worst . . . literally. His three interceptions helped him lock in the lowest EPA efficiency of the week and the 2nd lowest of the season. Only Tennessee’s rookie Malik Willis in his first start in week 8 did worse this year (EPA/d -0.73).
Foles was 32nd in yards per dropback (ny/d) and he was 31st in passing first down conversions. On the other hand, his accuracy (cpoe) came in at 27th, so that’s not the worst . . . technically.
Currently, I rank only Houston below us in passing, but with Foles starting the last 2 games, I think we are a lock to grab that last spot. Football Outsiders already thinks so, with a 32nd ranked passing DVOA for the Colts.
Things have been so bad that finishing 20th (aRSR) in the run game seems like good news. Game script pretty much limited carries, but the Colts did get a respectable 4.9 ypc (6th). However, those runs came on early downs where higher yards is the norm, so that’s kind of cheating. The more telling stats are the 25th ranked EPA/c and the 27th ranked 1st down conversion rate.
On the year, the run game is firmly entrenched in last place for aRSR. Football Outsiders says the Colts are only 2nd to last place in running DVOA, but there are 2 more games to bring that down.
CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD
This chart shows how embarrassingly poor this offense has been this year. When you are in a fight with Houston for last place, that’s pretty much rock bottom.
Week 17 is matchup against the New York Giants and their 29th ranked defense (DVOA). This is one of the few opponents that the Colts might actually have a chance to score on.
Against the pass, they rank 23rd in DVOA and 19th in EPA/d given up. So, they are worse than average, but against the Colts passing, the Giants clearly have the advantage. On the ground, New York ranks 31st in defensive rushing DVOA and 29th in aRSR against, so they are beatable there if our run game decides to show up.