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Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 13

A Nearly Weekly Sports Betting, Fantasy Football and Daily Fantasy Blog

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“It’s the most wonderful time of the year!”

Football season is in full swing and I’m still full from all the great college football yesterday. Last week, I was x-2 picking the games in batches! Yes, the Colts are bad and it will continue to get worse, but this blog isn’t just about the Colts! This blog is about how to bet on all of the NFL games except Thursday night because it’s a slop fest! Let’s get to it!

I have a nearly weekly Colts/Pacers podcast with another Stampede Blue writer Mateo Caliz called The Coltist that right now we are just uploading the raw video to YouTube. Due to the dual shock of the Colts being bad and the very young Pacers being good, Mateo and I have decided to shift the focus of our podcast to cover both professional sports teams here in Indiana. A unique thing about our show is that Mateo lives in Argentina and we are able to record a nearly weekly podcast without a hiccup. Each week, we name an episode of The Coltist after a Colts player that wore that jersey number. Here’s our episode from earlier this week.

To illustrate a point about betting on sports, I also make a weekly video with my wife where we try to pick the winners of each of the NFL games. The catch here is that we record this on Tuesday-Wednesday and my wife doesn’t watch the games at all. I point this out because just picking winners blind without looking at the record, spread, injuries, weather, etc. and my wife is beating my by 3-4 games through 12 weeks. My advice to bettors is to wait until the last minute to place your bets and based on my recent success, Sunday morning is a great time to think about throwing down with almost all the information except gametime inactives (which is why this is gambling). Here’s this week’s video for those interested. My wife is a special human being. I love you, Taylor (she doesn’t read this.)!

All these lines are from Draftkings this morning.

Let’s get some things straight, the Eagles -4.5 are going to hold at home today against the Titans. If you think the Titans are stronger than that, absolutely take them +4.5. I just don’t think the Titans have the team speed the Eagles do right now. Don’t bring boxing gloves to a track meet.

I’m torn on continuing to bet on the Jets +3 on the road against the Vikings and at some point, Minnesota has to return to Earth. Kirk Cousins is that dude right meow, but he’s still Kirk Cousins (IYKYK). A lot of people I know are SKOL fans, so this really is tough. Could this be the continued rise of Mike White?

What’s interesting to me here is the Browns -8 on the road against the Houston Texans. I’m not saying the Texans are good. It’s just strange to see Cleveland heavily favored on the road in December. Somebody pinch me. I’d take the Browns straight up, so ACKTUALLY, betting the Texans +8 might be correct. Again, I’m not saying they win. I’m saying it’s hard to win on the road and the Browns aren’t the most stable of franchises. That’s it! It’s your money!

Almost hilariously repetitive at this point are the weekly ear beatings Russell Wilson takes (much to the delight of my wife — she can’t stand him) and the hits don’t stop coming as the Broncos +9 take on the absolutely disrespected Ravens -9 and when I say I fully expect this to get ugly, again I’m saying someone is trying to fistfight at the footrace. This ain’t going to go well. Russell is stale crackers and moldy cheese lame, bad BLECH!

Again, I feel like I’m living in the twilight zone because the game I’m most excited for this week is the Jaguars vs. Lions -1 and in this house, we bet on Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell AKA MCDC. Didn’t the Jaguars just beat the Ravens? Yes, they did. This is a week-to-week league. We are allowed to be wrong.

The Steelers +1 look like a safe road underdog against the Falcons and after watching young Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett tear the Colts apart last week, I’m confident saying he can definitely win on the road against Atlanta. That feels like a decent bet. I wonder if Atlanta can score more than 20 points?

That last comment brings me to Sunday Night Football. The Colts +10.5 feel like a lame duck on the road in primetime in the House that Jerry built against a great Cowboys -10.5 team. I’m concerned the Colts might be outmatched on both sides and could get blown out, but this team did beat the Chiefs and only lost to the Eagles by 1.

Hear me out.

I don’t think the Colts are going to win this game and I’d argue that winning this game could be potentially harmful to the future of the franchise because we really need a young, athletic quarterback to mold our offense around and those typically are highly sought after in the draft, but I have absolutely no problem taking them as the huge road dog and expect they’ll play the ‘Boys a lot toughter because Jim Irsay capped for the Colts to get more primetime opportunities and after last week’s offensive turd against the young Steelers, I expect the Colts to play the Cowboys tight bell to bell. Maybe this is a field goal game?

Daily Fantasy Sports

I think the wave to ride is the Mike White $5,400 one paired with Jamaal Williams $6,000. I’ve chosen T.J Hockenson $5,200 as my budget friendly TE and again, I’m super high on the Ravens $4,000 torching the Broncos today, so the Baltimore defense looks juicy against a terribad Denver offense. Fill the rest of your entry out on your own!

Fantasy Football

The theme in fantasy football for me this year is get your guy or be sad when you don’t. This year, as I’ve said in prior blog entries, I tried 0QB and 0RB strategies to middling results. I’m not like out-out of the Playoffs, but I’m not making the playoffs and winning a championship with these strategies this year. No, I am winning the league in which I said “F it, I’m getting the guy I want here”. In that league I have Lamar Jackson and Travis Kelce. I win my bye weeks. Life is good. I have two other leagues that make me ashamed of myself. What was I thinking? Especially with money on the line. Lesson learned. Never losing a league again. Anyway.

Happy Holidays!