Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.
In Week 9 of 2011, the Colts took on the Atlanta Falcons. On their first two drives, the Colts turned the ball over and punted on the following nine consecutive drives, scoring 0 offensive points on the day. That game was a more productive offense than what Matt Ryan and company did in week 2.
This was literally — and I mean literally — the worst offensive performance I have ever seen from a Colts team.
The first time the team was even in scoring position was in the 4th qtr facing a 24-point deficit. Curtis Painter racked up more first downs against Atlanta than Matt Ryan could manage against the Jaguars . . . THE JAGUARS!!
Three teams were shut out last week, but the Colts had the worst Drive Success Rate. So, that counts as last place in my book. I’m too tired to re-sort my table to show that, but don’t be fooled. The Colts offense was the worst last week:
- tied for last in points per drive
- last in DSR
- tied for 28th in epa per play
- 25th in yards per play
- 30th in success rate
- 31st in first down conversion rate
Matt Ryan’s week 2 was worse than anything Carson Wentz ever did (or didn’t) do as a Colt. It is worse than anything Curtis Painter did as a Colt. It is almost worse than anything Jacoby Brissett did as a Colt . . . almost.
- 32nd in epa per drop-back
- 30th in success rate
- 30th in conversion rate
- 23rd in net yardage efficiency
- Tied for the most interceptions
I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed. No, actually I am mad. I am furious.
The run game didn’t help matters much. A dead-last standard success rate was lifted somewhat by a couple of garbage-time explosive rushes from J.T. to give a 15th-ranked yards per carry and 17th-ranked epa per carry.
I give the run game an 18th-ranked adjusted RSR. Normally, I would say that seems high but week 2 was a poor rushing week for the league, so relatively speaking, that is probably an accurate rank.
CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD
The obvious conclusion is obvious. That sucked. Hard. At least we have the Chiefs to look forward to.
Kansas City ranks 16th in points per drive against through the first two weeks, which is in line with other key numbers (18th DSR against, 19th epa per play against, 15th opponent conversion rate). Football Outsiders puts them as the 14th best defense.
I show they are tougher against the pass than the run, ranking 15th in pass epa/d against while only 24th in adj RSR. Football Outsiders thinks I am smoking crack as they have KC pass defense at 22nd in DVOA and the run defense 6th. I’m not sure how you can be the 6th best rush defense with the 23rd ranked success rate, 18th conversion rate, and 25th epa per carry, but you do you, Football Outsiders.