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Malott’s Believe It or Not Week 3

A Sports Betting, DFS and FF Blog

Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images

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Last week, I wrote:

I want to start by saying that I absolutely love the Chargers+4 on the road in Kansas City on Thursday night. I’ve been a Justin Herbert fan (if you remember, I scouted his quarterback class for our Draft Guide some years ago) and especially without Keenan Allen in the brightest of bright lights, too, I expect Herbert and the Chargers to keep pace and possibly spoil on Thursday Night Football!

At least we started last week’s bets off with a winner!

As previously mentioned, I am also buying hard on the Panthers +2 on the road against the New York Giants. Baker Mayfield has those games where he lifts the entire organization and if there’s a franchise absolutely teetering on terrible and ready for a blowout home loss, it’s the G-Men.

I’d then take the Browns, Colts and Steelers all straight up.

Oof. None of that, huh?

I’ll also take the Ravens, Bucs and Lions straight up.

I guess 2 out of 3 ain’t bad?

I’m thinking let’s make some money so I’ll absolutely take the Atlanta Falcons +10.5 on the road against the Rams. They hung in there Week 1 until the bitter end and lost and you know, sometimes it be like that. Sometimes there’s a whole season of that.

Got there!

Along the same lines, I’m a Seattle Seahawks +8.5 fan on the road against San Francisco, their bitter Division rival, after that tough Week 1 loss. Vegas suggests the Seahawks are lame without Jamal Adams.


I’ll also take Houston +10 on the road against Denver and it’s not because I think Houston will win or has a chance to win. It’s because sometimes that’s just how it is. There’s what happens, and what Vegas thinks happens (Houston goes to Denver and gets beat by 2 scores after taking the Colts to overtime in Week 1?).


I’ll also take the Titans +10 on the road against the Bills on Monday Night because it’s Monday Night Football and again, I do think the Bills are two scores better than the Titans 99 times out of 100, but it’s Monday Night Football.

Ouch. Titans got dog-walked.

It just so happens that there are two games on Monday night this upcoming week! What?!

The Eagles -2 are going to win at home on Monday night as well. You can take that to the bank!

To the bank!

Or not.

Just don’t bet your house and you’re good!

I still don’t think we’ve figured anything out (we only hit on about half our bets last week after literally going 0-fer Week 1, so we’re certainly trending in the right direction), so let’s take a look on Tallysight to see if there are any lines we like.

First off, I am all over the Detroit Lions+6 on the road against the Minnesota Vikings. I’ve got a feeling you can’t buy a better motivator than Dan Campbell and the Lions can hang with anybody.

I like the Raiders-1.5 on the road against the Titans because obviously I’m a hater or is it because the Titans just got absolutely demolished on Monday Night Football and now you expect me to believe they also hold against the Raiders to cap a short week? Okay?

Again, I like these young NFL coaches and think the Dolphins+5.5 can hang with the Bills at home in Miami. It’s a week-to-week league and a gameplan goes a long way.

I think the Colts, their fanbase and the rest of the world would love for them to come out and spoil the Kansas City Chief’s season at home here in Indy but it’s just not going to happen and there’s nothing we can do about it this time, methinks. The Chiefs -5.5 should win this going away.

Also, I think the Cardinals +3.5, Broncos+1.5 and Giants-1 all hold it down at home this week.


My approach this week was bottom-up, meaning rather than focus on the skill players first, I picked the defense and tight end I wanted. This week, I like the Ravens $3,000 against New England and Gerald Everett $4,400 (coming off a week in which he caught 6 of 10 targets as a tight end). In terms of QB, Carson Wentz $6,300 is set to go off in a Division game against the Eagles average 32.3PPG but I’d rather have Joe Burrow $6,600 against the Jets just based on opponent. Your mileage may vary in terms of other skill position players, so tell me in the comments who you have filling in my blanks.

Fantasy Football

Alright so I’m 1-1 across the board, from the staff league to my only other league (a cash PPR league that I went 12-2 in last year only making 5 moves all season long). I saw that Lamar Jackson missed practice today with a right elbow injury, so I handcuffed Kirk Cousins because he’s due for a bounce-back game against the Lions, right? I noticed that Carson Wentz (currently QB4 in standard scoring according to ESPN) is available in both of my leagues, so I stashed him in one in case he plays well in this Division game against the Eagles and Kirk Cousins (oddly enough) doesn’t indeed bounce back against the Lions. Other than that, I’m preparing myself for the Waddle vs. Diggs show on Sunday (Miami vs. Buffalo) and ain’t it great that football is back?