For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by attempts through current week.
If you are hoping that these numbers will reveal a glaring weakness in the opponent’s passing game, then better luck next week.
This year, Patrick Mahomes has thrown significantly quicker than average for about average target depth (23rd ttt, 16th adot). He is highly accurate, which helps his receivers gain higher than expected yac on completions (3rd cpoe, 9th yacoe). That all combines into the following formula:
Decent Depth + Great Accuracy + Good YAC = 6th highest yards per attempt.
He has seen a lot of pressure (8th pr%) and since he throws so quickly, that implies some O-line issues. However, in the face of that pressure, he doesn’t take sacks and he avoids abandoning the play (32nd sck%, 29th aa%).
He doesn’t turn the ball over and he throws lots of first downs and TDs (30th to%, 2nd 1st%, 2nd td%). So, it’s not surprising that his combined yardage and non-yardage efficiency ranks 2nd in the league (0.50 epa/d). That’s not due to some outlier plays either, as his 2nd place success rate shows the he is also consistent throughout the game (60.3% psr).
If it wasn’t for Josh Allen, there would be no question as to who the MVP front-runner would be.
That’s not to say that Mahomes never has down games. He had 4 or 5 pretty bad games last year, so yes . . . I’m sayin’ there’s a chance.
His attempt and completion depth has tended towards the shorter passes and that has been true most of his career. He relies on accurate short throws to get good yac.
Travis Kelce is his safety blanket, with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Clyde Edwards-Helaire fighting for the #2 spot.
So far, in the first 2 weeks, he has gotten rid of the ball quickly relative to his depth of targets.
OK, so I guess the middle of the field between 10-20 yards is his weak spot. For the remaining 96% of attempts, he’s ridiculously good.