With the final week of the season approaching, the Colts could be picking as high as third and as low as sixth. Facing the Texans, who have currently the worst record in the NFL, but dealing with plenty of injuries right now, I would say this game is a toss up between two terrible teams.
Colts pick at 6th if
- Indianapolis WIN ; Los Angeles Rams LOSS
If the Colts close out the season with a win against the Texans, and the Rams lose to the Seahawks, then the Colts would drop down to the 6th spot in the draft because of the Week 1 tie in Houston as both LA and Indy would finish the season with 5 wins. The #6 spot is a bit dangerous, because there are three Tier I quarterbacks in this draft in my opinion, and you run the risk of other teams overpaying and jumping right in front of you.
Colts pick at 5th if
- Indianapolis WIN; Los Angeles Rams WIN
- Indianapolis LOSS ; Arizona LOSS ; Denver LOSS
This seems the most reasonable scenario, as the Colts will likely be picking at 5th once the draft begins. I don’t have much faith in a Rams’ win against a Seattle Seahawks on the brink and desperately needing a win to make the playoffs, but stranger things have happened in the final week of the NFL season. The other scenario also seems quite reasonable, as the Colts could very well lose against the Texans, but Arizona will most likely lose to the 49ers who are playing for the #1 seed and Denver goes up against the red-hot Chargers.
Colts pick at 4th if
- Indianapolis LOSS ; Arizona LOSS ; Denver WIN
- Indianapolis LOSS ; Arizona WIN ; Denver LOSS
Unlikely, but it could happen that the Colts lose to the Texans and either the Cardinals or the Broncos manage to pull off an upset win. I don’t think Arizona beats the 49ers, not even a chance, but Denver does not have their first round pick and they will be playing motivated to show everyone that they still have the talent and could make some noise next season. Ending the season at 4th would be amazing, as it would put Indy in a prime position to grab that top end talent.
Colts pick at 3rd if
- Indianapolis LOSS ; Arizona WIN ; Denver WIN
A pipe dream, even if the Colts lose against the Texans, it would be almost impossible for both the Cardinals and the Broncos to win. There is not much difference between picking 4th and 3rd so it would certainly not be the end of the world if this scenario does not pan out.