Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week Five Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
#1: Best Bet for Beginners- Last week’s BBB was the Buffalo Bills -5.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars. As it turns out, betting against the Jaguars in London after they had already been there for a week and a half is risky. All the Bills came home with was a stamp in their passports.
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= $15.94 (2-3 record on the year)
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am- a three-way parlay of Jared Goff to throw for over 238.5 yards, Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown scorer and Josh Allen anytime touchdown. This one was risky as this bet, by it’s very nature, is. And once again, it did not hit. DraftKings listed Goff’s yardage over/under at 238.5 yards and he threw for 236. If that’s not proof that trying to beat oddsmakers is hard, I don’t know what is.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$50.00 (0-5 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- a two-game parlay. Baltimore Ravens -4 and the Miami Dolphins -11. The Ravens had, potentially the most embarrassing loss of week five, a loss that no one saw coming. The Dolphins, however, did come through on this one. Unfortunately there are no half points. This one didn’t hit.
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= $8.01 (2-3 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- Colts to win. DraftKings gave the Colts +102 odds so my $2 bet paid out $4.04. We’re back in business.
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= $1.64 (2-3 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 6 Best Bet for Beginners:
I don’t know if there is a team in the league that will lose to them by less than a TD and this week we’re hammering favorites.
Week 6 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a three way parlay of Tyreek Hill anytime touchdown scorer, Tee Higgins anytime touchdown scorer, and your pick of Zack Moss or Jonathan Taylor to score a touchdown. Pehs says he’s going with Moss to score the touchdown. The lines aren’t out yet but the estimated line on this bet is around +550 so a $10 bet would pay out $65.
Hill is going to do Hill things against the Carolina Panthers. Burrow is going to find Higgins this week after giving Chase Young all the love last week. And I love Gardner Minshew but the Indianapolis Colts are going to continue to run the rock. I’m taking Zack Moss to score this week.
Week 6 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is betting the Cincinnati Bengals -3 to beat the Seattle Seahawks. Just a few short weeks ago Pehs told us he wasn’t betting on the Bengals until further notice. Now, he’s locking them up. What changed?
The Bengals are back. Joe Burrow is healthy and the Seahawks don’t stand a chance. -3 is a steal. I feel the same way about the Bengals this week as I did about the Colts last week.
Week 6 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Indianapolis Colts. This week’s MWW: Colts +4.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
This is a rare Colts wager that I agree with Pehs on and I don’t know what that means for this bet or the Colts. I believe the Colts are going to control both lines of scrimmage and while I think it could result in a win for Indy, I think more than anything they’ll keep it close until the very end.
The Colts suck in Jacksonville. But this is a revenge game for Gardner Minshew, so Colts +4.5 lock it in.
I guess we disagree, greatly, on why it will be close. But whatever, I’ll take it.
That’s all for week six with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and who actually is as good at sports betting as anyone can be, probably.
Let us know what your best bet is this week and if you beat the Pehs Dispenser, I’ll make Pehs answer for it next week.