Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week Seven Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
#1: Best Bet for Beginners- Last week’s BBB was to bet the over in the Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles game. The over/under was 51.5 points. DraftKings was giving it -110 odds so a $10 bet would have paid out $19.09. Instead the Dolphins wet the bed and the two teams combined for 48 points. Bummer.
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= -$4.06 (2-5 record on the year)
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am- Last week’s YSDTBITA was a three way parlay taking the New York Giants +3, the Baltimore Ravens -3 and the Los Angeles Rams -3. DraftKings was giving this one +575 odds so a $10 bet would have paid out $67.59. The problem with this bet was the favored Rams lost to a bad Steelers team at home. We were THIS close to hitting a big one.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$70.00 (0-7 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- In his lock of the week, Pehs bet the Buffalo Bills -8 to cover against the New England Patriots. Being a Colts fan, Pehs is used to getting screwed by the Patriots and last week was no exception.
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= $17.81 (3-4 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- Bet the under of 41 points. To be completely fair, Pehs sent me a text and told me to take the under or a Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown. I was convinced the Browns defense was going to limit the Colts offense all day so I decided to bet the under. I’ll take the responsibility for this one.
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= -$2.36 (2-5 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 8 Best Bet for Beginners:
This week’s BBB is the Miami Dolphins -9.5 over the New England Patriots
The Dolphins have given the Patriots a hard time for years and the Pats just had their best game of the season. The game is in Miami and with this line it feels like the books are trying to get us to bet on New England. So I have to bet the Phins to cover. But I don’t love this bet. That’s a ton of points but it really seems like the books want you to bet the Pats, my gut is telling me one thing and my head is telling me another. Its been a rough couple of weeks of gambling and I am trying everything this week.
Week 8 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a three way parlay of the New York Jets -2.5, Los Angeles Rams +6, Jalen Hurts to throw more than 1.5 touchdowns. DraftKings is giving this bet +672 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $77.21
Don’t ask questions, it’s a winner, I can feel it in my bones.
Week 8 Pehs Dispenser:
After last week I am starting to believe in the Vikings again and starting to feel like this Green Bay team might not be that good. I had high hopes for the Packers after their week one win against the Bears. This is a big game for both teams but I feel the Vikings will get it done. It is scary due to the Vikings currently getting 61% of the bets but only 14% of the money. So that means the big money is betting Green Bay but the eye test is telling me I have to bet the Vikings this week.
Week 8 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Indianapolis Colts. This week’s MWW: Colts to win with the moneyline. DraftKings is giving this game -105 odds so a $10 bet pays out $19.52.
Who knows in this game. I mean we all watched the Colts game last week. It wasn’t what anyone expected. The offense looked good and scored points against a great defense. DraftKings does have a first touchdown scorer of Jonathan Taylor and second touchdown of Alvin Kamara at +2000 which seems like it could happen but its probably going to be a Michael Pittman Jr. first td after his comments after last weeks game. DraftKings also has a bet for longest td of the game. But I think you take colts at -105. I don’t hate that bet but this one is a total crapshoot.
That’s all for week eight with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and despite his picks in this weekly article is somehow up (a lot) in his personal bets on the season.
Let us know what your best bet is this week and if you beat the Pehs Dispenser, I’ll make Pehs answer for it next week.
Can’t Bet List: