- Jonathan Taylor’s Role: Examining his importance and impact on the game.
- Cornerback Challenges: Addressing the Colts’ secondary vulnerabilities.
- The Minshew Factor: The necessity of minimizing turnovers.
- Neutralizing Alvin Kamara: Strategies to limit his impact.
- Pressure on Derek Carr: The significance of the defensive front’s performance.
- Betting Insights: Analyzing odds and gambling angles for each key game aspect.
As the Indianapolis Colts gear up to face the New Orleans Saints, both teams are at a crossroads. The outcome could easily shift their season’s trajectory. Here are the critical keys to the game, with a specific emphasis on the odds and gambling angles.
1. Jonathan Taylor: The Offensive Lynchpin
For the Colts to emerge victorious, the offense must get Jonathan Taylor going. After shaking off the rust, Taylor looks ready to take on a heavier role. His rare talent and a reinvigorated Colts offensive line are key to putting a formidable Saints’ run defense on its heels. Bettors should keep an eye on Taylor’s rushing yards prop bets.
Gambling Angle: Over/Under on Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards could be a tight call, but considering his uptrend, betting on the over might be worth the risk.
2. Cornerback Conundrum: Minimizing Damage
With injuries plaguing the Colts’ cornerback squad, there’s an inevitable vulnerability against Saints’ receivers like Chris Olave and Michael Thomas. The young Jaylon Jones and Darrell Baker Jr. are thrust into the spotlight. While perfection isn’t expected, their ability to contain the Saints’ aerial threat is critical.
Gambling Angle: Over bets on Saints’ receivers’ yardage could be tempting.
3. The Minshew Factor: Protecting the Ball
Gardner Minshew’s turnover woes are a glaring concern. His propensity for giveaways has directly correlated with the team’s fortunes. Minimizing turnovers is non-negotiable for a Colts victory.
Gambling Angle: Betting the over on .5 turnovers on DraftKings Sportsbook seems prudent. However, this is a game where Minshew needs to tight things up for the Colts to win.
4. Neutralizing Alvin Kamara
Kamara’s versatility makes him a nightmare for defenses. His ability to accumulate yards on the ground and through the air makes him a focal point for the Colts’ defense. Keeping him in check is a vital component of the defensive game plan.
Gambling Angle: Kamara’s total yardage over/under will be a popular bet. Betting over 52.5 rushing yards looks like a reasonable wager.
5. Pressure on Derek Carr
Generating consistent pressure on Derek Carr could be the game-changer. The Colts’ defensive front must disrupt Carr’s rhythm, forcing him into hurried decisions and potential turnovers.
Gambling Angle: Betting lines on sacks and quarterback pressures might be worth exploring. Given the Saints’ issues with protecting Carr, betting on the over for sacks could be a savvy move.
Betting Odds Overview
As of this writing, DraftKings Sportsbook is giving the Saints a 2-point edge, despite playing at Lucas Oil Stadium. A mixed betting strategy might be prudent. While props on individual performances can offer value, the overall game outcome is harder to predict, suggesting a cautious approach for those bets.
If the Colts are able to repeat last week’s performance against the Browns and reduce turnovers, I like the Colts to win 27-23. I like Josh Downs over 48.5 receiving yards, Alvin Kamara over 94.5 rushing and receiving yards, Gardner Minshew's longest completion over 33.5 yards, and Zaire Franklin over 5.5 solo tackles.