For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)
Colts face their third divison rival QB this year in Ryan Tannehill. Let’s see how he has been doing.
- This year, Tannehill has faced average defenses in a run-first offense that has been just OK at running (16th opd, 24th edp, 14th arsr).
- He’s faced a lot of pressure even though he gets rid of the ball quickly, which points to O-line issues (8th pr%, 24th ttt).
- Despite the quick throws, he is making the 2nd longest attempts and 6th longest completions of any QB (2nd adot, 6th ay/c).
- His completion rate is low, but that is expected with such long throws. His adjusted accuracy is a bit below average, but not bad (27th cmp%, 22nd cpoe) .
- His receivers are giving lower than expected YAC, but the long completions are boosting his yardage efficiency to above average (25th yacoe, 13th ypa).
- He reacts to the pressure not by scrambling or throwing the ball away, but by taking a LOT of sacks. This causes his abandon play rate to be high and his abandon yardage to be the lowest in the league (23rd scr%, 26th ta%, 3rd sck%, 12th aa%, 32nd aay). That’s a bad combo and it forces his yardage efficiency from 13th on an attempt basis to 24th on a dropback basis (24th ny/d).
- He not throwing first downs or TDs, but he is turning the ball over (28th 1st%, 29th td%, 9th to%). Again, bad combo.
That all culminates into the 22nd ranked epa efficiency and the 31st ranked passing success rate, making him on average a low tier QB in 2023.
He has had some wild swings this year, so its tough to say what to expect.
Passing depth on attempts this year is significantly higher than last year, but that does not always translate to long completions.
DeAndre Hopkins has almost double the targets of the #2 receiver.
Accuracy has also seen some wild swings this year. He’s killing it on the super-deep passes, but not so much between 15 and 30 yards.
He usually throws quickly, but pressure may be dictating that more than usual.
He excels in the middle of the field, but isn’t great on the right side.