Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week Nine Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= $5.03 (3-6 record on the year)
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am- Was a three way parlay of the Los Angeles Rams +3, the Philadelphia Eagles -3, and Joe Burrow over 14.5 rushing yards. DraftKings Sports book was giving this one +670 odds so a $10 bet would have paid out $77.08. Unfortunately, things did not go well once again for the bet that is designed to miss more often than it hits.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$90.00 (0-9 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- the under in the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins game. The over/under for this game was set at 50 points and came with -108 odds so had you placed a $10 bet it would have paid out $19.25. We have a winner!
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= $56.15 (5-4 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- Jonathan Taylor to have more than 66.5 rushing yards. Taylor had 47 yards and we missed the mark this week. To be fair, Pehs did say no one should be betting on the Colts.
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= -$6.36 (2-7 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 10 Best Bet for Beginners:
This week’s BBB is the 49ers -3 over the Jaguars. DraftKings is giving this one -118 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $18.47.
This seems like it is a must win for the San Francisco 49ers playing a pretty decent Jacksonville Jaguars team. If Brock Purdy can not turn the ball over this week they will stand a good chance. I expect to see Kittle very involved. Depending on his yards I might be taking the over.
Week 10 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a three way parlay that takes the Ravens -6.5, the over, which is set at 38.5 in the Cowboys vs. Giants game, and the Bengals to be ahead by more than 3.5 points after the first half of their game against the Texans. DraftKings is giving this one +601 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $70.19
Ravens -6.5, Lamar has looked great these last few weeks. And I still hate the Cleveland Browns. The Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants, over 38.5. The Cowboys had a tough loss to the Philadelphia Eagles last week. I expect they are going to try and make this a blow out. I could see the Cowboys scoring 40 themselves so Big Mike can look at daddy Jerry after the game and say “See look, we are good.” Again I love the Bengals this week. Freaking love them (so they are probably going to lose) so we are taking them to win the first half in this bet as well. -3.5 for the first half. That's a +601 parlay.
Week 10 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is taking the Bengals -6 over the Texans. DraftKings Sportsbook is giving this one -115 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $18.69.
Joe Burrow might be the best quarterback in the league. Like years past the Cincinnati Bengals started slow and have turned it on. I have officially bet the Bengals to win the Super Bowl. I understand C.J. Stroud had a game winning drive last week and didn’t look bad. but the week before he gave the Carolina Panthers their only win of the season. Bengals -6 seems like a lock. I might even sprinkle Bengals -13.5.
Week 10 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Indianapolis Colts. This week’s MWW: taking the over of 22.5 points. DraftKings is giving this one -102 odds so a $2 bet would pay out $3.96.
Last week Jonathan Taylor had 41 yards in the first half and couldn't find an over for us. I absolutely hate that I have to come up with a bet for this team. This week we are taking the Colts team points over at 22.5. Why? Because they score 21 or more points every week. But betting something on the Colts sucks.
That’s all for week ten with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and despite his picks in this weekly article is somehow up (a lot) in his personal bets on the season.
Let us know what your best bet is this week and if you beat the Pehs Dispenser, I’ll make Pehs answer for it next week.
Can’t Bet List: