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Week 10 QB Analysis: Minshew runs from ghosts

Indianapolis Colts v New England Patriots Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


  • The Colts went with a run-first offense, but the run game under-performed (24th edp, 20th arsr)
  • Against less than average pressure, Minshew ran around and notched the longest QB time to throw (21st pr%, 1st ttt). The upside of that is it helped him with a longer than average depth of target (11th adot).
  • While he certainly floated some passes, his overall accuracy was good, which helped turn the long targets into long completions (9th cpoe, 7th ay/c).
  • Unfortunately, YAC on those completions was very low, which limited yardage (31st yac, 32nd yacoe, 19th ypa)
  • He didn’t take any sacks nor did he scramble, which means he didn’t dilute his average yardage when including abandoned plays. This actually lifts his relative ranking of overall yardage efficiency to above average (15th ny/d).
  • His passing conversion rate was around average but he didn’t throw any TDs (18th 1st%, tied 28th td%).
  • He didn’t have a lot of attempts and so the 1 interception ends up being a higher than average turnover rate (10th to%).

This was a weird game. Despite him running around for apparently no reason, Minshew made a lot of successful throws. When he was pressured, he threw the ball away instead of taking the sack. He ends up with about average EPA efficiency, even though the offense as a whole was poor.


The interception and a couple of 3rd down incompletions were the only real negative outcomes and he had a lot of positive plays.

On a per pass basis, this was an improvement from the previous 2 weeks.


He wasn’t afraid to take deeper shots and he completed 10 of his last 13 passes, but the 7 incompletions in the 7 first half limited scoring opportunities.

Average completion depth was pretty impressive this week.


The game plan was pretty much hand-off to Taylor or throw to Pittman.


Accuracy has been trending up.


Minshew went from one of the quickest time to throws in week 9 to the longest in week 10.


The left side of the field was no bueno, but other than that, Minshew found a lot of success.