Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week Eight Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
#1: Best Bet for Beginners- The Miami Dolphins (-9.5) over the New England Patroits. The Phins beat the Pats by 14 points which means this bet is a winner. We got it at -110 odds which means this one would have paid out a total of $19.09.
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= $15.03 (3-5 record on the year)
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am- Last week’s YSDTBITA was a three way parlay of the New York Jets -2.5, Los Angeles Rams +6, Jalen Hurts to throw more than 1.5 touchdowns. DraftKings was giving this bet +672 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $77.21
The Rams got absolutely destroyed meaning that once again this one didn’t hit.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$80.00 (0-8 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- In his lock of the week, Pehs bet the Minnesota Vikings -1.5 over the Green Bay Packers. DraftKings gave this one -110 odds and because the Vikings won by 14 points, this one paid out 19.09.
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= $36.90 (4-4 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- Colts to win with the moneyline. DraftKings gave this game -105 odds but it didn’t matter because the Colts were terrible.
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= -$4.36 (2-6 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 9 Best Bet for Beginners:
I came up with the beginner bet last and I’m all out of good bets for this week, this week sucks. I don’t love this bet but I could see this being a 27 to 24 game or 35 to 17 game. but I could be wrong. either way I’ll bet the over.
Week 9 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a three way parlay of the Los Angeles Rams +3, the Philadelphia Eagles -3, and Joe Burrow over 14.5 rushing yards. DraftKings Sports book is giving this one +670 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $77.08.
The Rams are getting 3.5 against a terrible Green Bay Packers team. Matt LaFleur really needs this win. The Rams might be without Matthew Stafford this week which is probably the reason the Packers are favored. Sean McVay was able to have success on short notice a season ago with Baker Mayfield so I think even if Stafford doesn't play McVay will still find a way to win this game but take the points just in case.
Week 9 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is taking the under in the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins game. The over/under for this game is currently set at 50 points and a winning under bet comes with -108 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $19.25.
We are taking the under. This seems like it should be the easiest over in the history of overs. Two offenses that can put up numbers (I understand the chiefs haven't played well but they are still one of the best offensives in the NFL when they put it all together) either way. why not take the over? Seems like a real sucker bet and this week we aren't going to be suckers. But what if they have made it feel like such a sucker bet because they want us to take the over? Gambling is hard but I am taking the under.
Week 9 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Indianapolis Colts. This week’s MWW: Jonathan Taylor to have more than 66.5 rushing yards. DraftKings is giving this one -130 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $17.69.
I would probably bet Jonathan Taylor to have over 66.5 yards. the Carolina Panthers are a team they should be able to play old school ground and pound football against. It should be a low scoring game but we see what the colts have done for the last two weeks against some pretty good defenses. So take Taylor’s over.
That’s all for week nine with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and despite his picks in this weekly article is somehow up (a lot) in his personal bets on the season.
Let us know what your best bet is this week and if you beat the Pehs Dispenser, I’ll make Pehs answer for it next week.
Can’t Bet List: