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Week 14 Colts’ QB Analysis: Not all bad

 

Indianapolis Colts v Cincinnati Bengals Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season)

  • Against one of the softest run defenses in the league, the Colts could not move the ball on the ground and became the most pass-heavy team through Sunday (30th arsr, 1st edp).
  • Minshew was not pressured much at all in part due to his very quick throwing time (31st pr%, 30th ttt).
  • Those quick throws led to short attempts, but surprisingly not-so-short completions (27th adot, 19th ay/c).
  • When completion depth ranks relatively higher than attempts, it is usually due to accuracy (cpoe). Minshew’s accuracy was pretty poor with a completion rate -2.7% below expected. However, all QBs as a whole sucked in week 14 and so that ranks 16th.
  • YAC was low on those passes, likely in part because of inaccurate throws, which led to poor yards per attempt (24th yac, 21st yacoe, 21st ypa).
  • Even though the pressure rate was low, Minshew’s relative amount of sacks, scrambles and throw-aways was high ( 20th sck%, 19th scr%, 20th ta%). The good news is that it did not lower his overall yardage efficiency much. The bad news is that his efficeincy was still bad (20th ny/d).
  • Where he redeemed himself was on conversions: he consistently moved the chains with his arm (8th 1st%). It is the only reason the Colts had any succcess at all.
  • However, Minshew did not cap those conversions with TDs and he turned the ball over (19th td%, 15th to%).

The culmination of all of that is a +0.02 EPA per dropback, which isn’t very good, yet somehow still ranks 13th as QBs had a very bad week overall (on the season, that number would rank 21st).

However, his 48.8% Passing Succes Rate is a very good number and the 9th placed rank is well earned, primarily driven by all of his passing first downs.


HOW WELL?

You can see that this week’s EPA and yardage efficiency are worse than any of the previous 3 weeks, yet first down conversion rate was highest among those weeks, driving good success rate.


HOW FAR?

Minshew rarely ventured past 20 yards, which I am fine with, but on passes <5 yards he had a 65% completion rate and that is too low for that distance. If you are going to pass short, you have to complete them and the receivers have to get good yac.


TO WHO?

Pittman was just shy of 100 yards and ouside of that, no one did much, although the ball was spread around well.

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season)

This next graph is actaully a decent spread of how receivers by position should look.


HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy stays below average.


HOW FAST?

This is the 3rd straight week of quick throws.


TO WHERE?

The deep ball just wasn’t there this week.

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season)