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Week 14 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Mitch Trubisky

New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


This isn’t Mitch Trubisky’s first rodeo in the NFL, but for the 2nd week in a row, the Colts are facing a QB who has only recently became the starter for their team. Trubisky has only 1 start this year, but he has played in 4 games. Here is a look at his cumulative production.

opd, edp, arsr, pr%, ttt, adot, ay/c, sck%, scr%, ta%, aa%, aay, cmp%, cpoe, yac, yacoe, ypa, ny/d, 1st%, td%, to%, epa/d, psr
  • He has faced very easy passing defenses, but the support he gets from the rushing game is almost non-existent (32nd opd, 32nd arsr).
  • He holds onto the ball a little longer than the average QB and experiences a little more pressure than the average QB (13th ttt, 11th pr%). That’s not a coincidence.
  • He attempts long passes but tends to complete only the short ones (5th adot, 27th ay/c). That is a direct result of poor accuracy (30th cpoe).
  • His passes don’t garner much YAC (29th yac, 29th yacoe)
  • Here’s a pop quiz. Short passes, with little yac that are completed at a low rate end up with low or high yards per attempt? Answer: 31st ypa.
  • He doesn’t get sacked much, escaping pressure with his legs (30th sck%, 5th scr%)
  • On broken plays, he averages 2.1 yards gained which is the 2nd highest of any QB, but his YPA is so low that his overall yardage efficiency is still bad (29th ny/d).
  • Surprisingly, he gets a decent amount of first downs (14th 1st%), but he doesn’t throw many TDs (24th td%). So he can move the chains, but he’s not finishing the drives.

He is not careful with the ball, which on top of poor yardage keeps his overall efficiency low (7th to%, 26th epa/d), but he makes a lot of positive value plays (first downs), so his success rate is good (12th psr).

He could hurt us with his legs, but we shouldn’t fear is passing ability.


His poor play in week 14 is not out of the ordinary for Steelers passing.


He threw a lot shorter in week 14 than he did the previous week, so its tough to say what to expect.


This next chart is not just Trubisky, but all of Pittsburgh passing for the year. Pickens is the clear #1 receiver and RB Jaylen Warren actually has more catches than the #2 WR Diontae Johnson.


Trubisky’s start had a lot of off-target throws.

(The chart on the right is the season totals that include Pickett.)


His Time to Throw was a lot longer than Pickett’s recent weeks, but still quicker than NFL average.


There is no real pattern as to where on the field Trubisky finds success.