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Best NFL prop bets for Colts vs Falcons Week 16

Syndication: The Indianapolis Star Kelly Wilkinson/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Indianapolis Colts (+1) are on the road to play the Atlanta Falcons at 1:00pm ET on Sunday. Here are some fun bets that should be considered and what I’ll be betting on.

In terms of how odds are displayed, +100 means that if you bet $100, you would win an additional $100 (be returned $200) if your bet hits. If it’s -150, it means you need to bet $150 to win $100 (be returned $250).

All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.


Potential Bets

Matt Gay - Over 1.5 Field Goals (-125) *Projected

Gay has been struggling recently, but against a pretty good Falcons D who don’t allow a lot of yards, the Colts could be struggling to move the ball consistently, which will give field goals a greater importance this game. I could see the Colts lining up for longer field goals and even taking points in situations where Steichen would go for it. The Falcons also allow the 3rd most field goal attempts per game at 2.4. If Gay were a little more consistent in the past few weeks I would’ve slammed my money on this right away, but even with his inconsistency this is probably a good bet.

Bijan Robinson - Under 84.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120)

This bet is intriguing, not because the Colts defense is that great against running backs, but more because the Falcons aren’t heavily using Robinson and besides Chase Brown on one catch two weeks ago, the Colts do a good job of limiting big plays from running backs. Even if Robinson gets 20 touches (which would be amongst the most he’s gotten this season), I don’t see him getting any explosive plays against this defense. Under 84.5 yards is more likely to hit because of the lack of explosive plays the Colts allow and the usage of Robinson.

Gardner Minshew Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

Explanation below.

Same Game Parlay: Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD & Colts to Win (+188)

Assuming Jonathan Taylor is back, I expect him to be thrust into action right away with Zack Moss not at 100%. Taylor isn’t at 100% either, but the Colts may not have a choice and they’ll need to use him early and often against the Falcons.


What I’m Betting On

Gardner Minshew Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120)

Each week I’ll be putting $50 on one of the prop bets and we’ll see how I do throughout the season.

Unfortunately, Minshew didn’t get over 33.5 attempts so our parlay didnt hit. After 15 weeks, we are down $5 (-0.6%).

This week I’m betting with Minshew and against the Falcons secondary. The Falcons secondary only has 7 interceptions on the year and Minshew’s play last week was extremely encouraging. Playing in a dome (which is where his good play has been) against a secondary that doesn’t generate turnover makes this line a good one.