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Week 16 Colts Offensive Rankings and Analysis: Below average result from a below average offense

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NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons Bob Scheer-USA TODAY Sports

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.


The Colts 71.4% Drive Success Rate isn’t terrible and shows that they had some success moving the ball against the Atlanta Falcons, but drive-killing mistakes prevented that from turning into points. 5 times the Colts entered Falcon territory with only 10 points to show for it.

After a promising first drive, 4 straight punts and the end of the half resulted in a 13 point deficit. After that, game script required an aggressive strategy and instead of putting up points, the offense logged an INT sandwiched between 2 turnovers on downs.


TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, Team PPG, Off PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, yds/srs, Strt Fld, xOPPD, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%

1.0 Point per Drive ain’t gonna cut it. That is the 3rd worst of the week and drags the season total down to 18th, although there is log-jam between 13th and 20th places.

The offense only managed 3.9 yards per play which ranks 31st, but some timely plays allowed for a 22nd ranked conversion rate. That’s still not good, but it I’ll take whatever muted ray of sunshine I can find.

We won TOP!!


PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, cpoe, YBC, YAC, 20+ #/Yd

After the Monday games, Minshew found himself nestled into the 25th spot for EPA efficiency. That brings the team season total to 18th, even though at a QB level, he is 21st against his peers.

His yardage efficiency was poor, earning only 4.4 yards per dropback, but he was able to throw first downs (17th 1st%). Unfortunately, he also was able to throw a pick and take 6 sacks, which killed any promise the first downs brought. Sure, that’s not all on Minshew, but he’s also not blameless either.


RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions: adj RSR, Yds, Car, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC, epa/c,

Against the #1 run defense in the league, the Colts run game performed like they were up against the #1 run defense in the league.

2.4 Yards per Carry and the 10th worst conversion rate, pretty much says it all. The Colts rank 25th in rush offense this week and fall 5 spots to 18th on the year (there is a log-jam of teams here too).


CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

This offense ranks 18th in rushing, 18th in passing and 18th overall. I’m going to go out on a limb and say they are a below average offense and below average offenses will often not score points against good defenses (Atlanta 12th in PPD against), so this should not have been much of a surprise.

It also shouldn’t be surprising if the Colts struggle against the Raiders who give up the 6th fewest points per drive of any team.

Against the pass they give up the 11th fewest EPA per dropback and the 14th lowest Passing Success Rate. On the ground they are about average coming in 16th in defensive Adj Rush Success Rate.

This may be a game where the Colts try to revive the run game.