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Week 17 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Aidan O’Connell

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


The Raiders benched Jimmy Garoppolo in week 9 and since then Aidan O’Connell has been leading the offense . . . poorly.

opd, edp, arsr, pr%, ttt, adot, ay/c, sck%, scr%, ta%, aa%, aay, cmp%, cpoe, yac, yacoe, ypa, ny/d, 1st%, td%, to%, epa/d, psr

  • So far, O’Connell has faced passing defenses that are a little tougher than average and the Raiders have leaned on the run game more than other teams (13th opd, 22nd edp).
  • He hasn’t faced a lot of pressure and part of that is due to his quick throws (23rd pr%, 21st ttt).
  • Those quick throws are also short throws and result in short completions (27th adot, 27th ay/c).
  • His accuracy has been horrible, which causes one of the league’s worst completion rates (32nd cpoe, 28th cmp%).
  • Short throws often result in large YAC (think screen passes) and the Raiders take advantage of that with the 10th highest average YAC and the 9th most YAC above expected.
  • The good YAC doesn’t make up for the atrocious completion rate and so YPA suffers (27th ypa).
  • Under pressure, he is not very mobile. He will throw the ball away, but he also takes a lot of sacks with no logged scrambles (12th ta%, 11th sck%, 32nd scr%).
  • That results in the worst average yardage on abandoned pass attempts (32nd aay) and keeps his overall yardage efficiency low (27th ny/d).
  • He can’t throw for first downs, he doesn’t throw touchdowns, and he turns the ball over frequently (30th 1st%, 27th td%, 4th to%).

All of that results in a 27th ranked EPA efficiency and 28th ranked Passing Success Rate. which is a significant drop-off from Garoppolo.


He’s had a few decent games, but mostly not. And he’s getting worse.


Passing depth is all over the place. So, for Sunday, your guess is as good as mine.

His passing yardage relies more on YAC than most QBs, but that by itself is not a bad thing.


Their receiving corps is a one-trick pony with Davante Adams.

Only the TEs and Josh Jacobs is adding positive receiving value.


Not good. Not good at all.

(The chart on the right is the season totals that include Garoppolo.)


His quick throws are right in line with his depth of target. So that’s a positive I guess.


There’s not many areas of the field where he has found success.