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Week 13 Colts’ QB Analysis: OT redemption

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. 

Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season)

  • For the 2nd week in a row, the Colts implemented a pass-first strategy, but unlike last week, the run game did not provide a huge amount of assistance (4th edp, 18th arsr).
  • Minshew was not pressured much as he kept the passes quick and short (21st pr%, 25th ttt, 23rd adot).
  • However, he hit on some key deep passes resulting in a much higher than average completion depth (11th ay/c).
  • His accuracy was a bit below average, which likely hurt receiver yac (16th cpoe, 16th yacoe), but not enough to significantly depress his average yardage (13th ypa).
  • His sack, scramble and throw away rates were all just shy of league average, and the -0.9 avg yardage from those plays didn’t impact his overall efficiency much (17th sck%, 15th scrm %, 18th ta%, 14th ny/d)
  • He clearly had a problem with moving the chains, as he ranked dead last in pass conversion rate, but he did get a couple of TDs (32nd 1st%, 16th td%).

His fumble was catastrophic (13th to%) and with his inability to convert series, his decent yardage efficiency was dragged well below average in terms of overall EPA efficeincy (20th epa/d). Although, his success volume was good enough to tread water with all the other QBs (15th psr).


HOW WELL?

Without overtime, Minshew would have had negative EPA on the day, but those last 4 plays was enough to lift him up to “yeah, kinda sorta almost OK” numbers.

First down conversions are not trending in the right direction and that is alarmingly bad news. If the slack can be picked up by the run game then great, but for this week that was tough going.


HOW FAR?

There was a good sprinkling of deep pass attempts among the primarily shorter ones. However, there were too many incompletions on those short passes. Some of those are throw aways from pressure, but still with a 21st ranked pressure rate, I think some of those should have been dump-offs. I haven’t watched the replay, so maybe I’m wrong.

Passing depth continues to trend shorter while completion depth continues to trend longer. All while YAC has been decent. Those are 3 pretty good things.


TO WHO?

Downs is still on the struggle bus as he tries to shake a lingering knee issue. Passes over his head aren’t helping.

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season)


HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy on deep passes had been ridiculously good, but overall, Minshew is not on target.


HOW FAST?

I’m very happy that Minshew kept his time to throw short. Not because quick TTT is necessarily good, but because I think it is good for him.


TO WHERE?

On passes over 20 yards, Minshew was ridiculously good, but notice the gaps in attempts between 10 -20 yards. Basically, passes were either within 10 yards or waaaaaay downfield.

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season)