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Week 14 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Jake Browning

Cincinnati Bengals v Jacksonville Jaguars Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)


DASHBOARD

Jake Browning has only 2 NFL starts, so any predictions about how he will play going forward are extremely pre-mature. However, I can certainly review what he’s done in the 2.5 games that he has played.

opd, edp, arsr, pr%, ttt, adot, ay/c, sck%, scr%, ta%, aa%, aay, cmp%, cpoe, yac, yacoe, ypa, ny/d, 1st%, td%, to%, epa/d, psr
  • He has faced above average defenses and led an offense that leans on passing with a run game that hasn’t been that great the last few games (8th opd, 6th edp, 25th arsr).
  • He gets rid of the ball super-quick, which helps keep the pass-rush in check (31st ttt, 24th pr%).
  • He throws very short passes, which leads to a ludicrous 78.6% completion rate (31st adot, 1st cmp%). Even adjusting for the short passing depth, his accuracy is still very good, which helps with average completion depth (1st cpoe, 24th ay/c)
  • Off of those short passes, yac is very high (as expected), but even accounting for target depth, his receivers are giving him some extra yards (5th yac, 5th yacoe). His accuracy helps with that as well.
  • That all leads to 8.8 yards per attempt, which is 6th best among QBs in that short time span.
  • Under pressure, he doesn’t throw the ball away a lot, but rather scrambles or takes the sack (23rd ta%, 12th scr%, 8th sck%).
  • Despite pressure being relatively low, he abandons plays at a higher than average rate (12th aa%), although this doesn’t end up hurting his overall yardage efficiency much (5th ny/d).
  • He’s doesn’t throw a lot of TDs, but he is very good at moving the chains and he doesn’t turn the ball over a lot (21st td%, 3rd 1st%, 23rd to%).

As I said before, he has only a little over 2 games under his belt, but his cumulative performance in those games has been very good, ranking top 10 in EPA efficiency and success rate (7th EPA/d, 6th psr).

I can almost guarantee those numbers will come down as he plays more games, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be good.


HOW WELL?

Burrow had been improving as the season wore on and Browning has not reversed that trend.


HOW FAR?

Burrow was throwing short, but Browning has thrown even shorter. As long as he can maintain his lofty completion rate, the Bengals pass game will do OK, but if he starts missing passes, look for his numbers to crater.


TO WHO?

Ja’ Maar Chase has been his go-to target and Mixon has been a valuable check-down outlet.


HOW ACCURATE?

Burrow had some accuracy issues early in the season, but after that he was very good. Browning continues that trend.

(The chart on the right is the season totals that incldue Burrow.)


HOW FAST?

Quick, short passes has been the Bengals game plan and that did not change with Browning under center.


TO WHERE?

He hasn’t shown many field-location weaknesses. He’s been good at all depths.