Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week 13 Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last time :
#1: Best Bet for Beginners- the over in the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers game. DraftKings had the over/under set at 43 and gave it -108 odds and because this one hit $10 bet paid out $19.25.
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= $32.75 (5-7 record on the year)
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am- was a three way parlay of George Kittle to score a touchdown, the Over to hit in the Dolphins vs. Commanders game, and the Colts defense/special teams to score a touchdown. DraftKings is gave this one +2322 odds so a $10 bet would have paid out $242.26. What’s crazy is, this bet was one George Kittle touchdown away from hitting. Instead the 49ers decided to let Deebo Samuel score three times instead of letting us win our bet.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$120.00 (0-12 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- the Miami Dolphins -9 to cover against the Washington Commanders. DraftKings is gave this bet -110 odds and because it hit a $10 bet paid out 19.09.
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= $84.49 (7-5 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- take the over. DraftKings had the over/under for this one set at 42 and they gave it -112 odds and because this bet hit my $2 bet paid out $3.78. I’m back in the black!
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= $1.87 (4-8 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 14 Best Bet for Beginners:
This week’s BBB is to take the under in the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game. DraftKings Sports book has the over/under for this game set at 51.5 and are giving the under -110 odds, so a $10 winner will pay out $19.09.
Both of these defenses have been playing well but both teams are known for their offenses. The books want you to take the over. Bet the under.
Week 14 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a two way parlay of Gardner Minshew to score an anytime touchdown and the San Francisco 49ers to cover (-13) against the Seattle Seahawks. DraftKings is giving this +1045 odds so a $10 bet will pay out #114.54.
The 49ers are a great team. I can see it: the Colts will be on the 8 yard line and Minshew will drop back to pass, nobody will be open and he’ll end up running it in (probably not but it would be fun).
Week 14 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is taking the over in the Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants game. DraftKings has the over/under set at 36.5 and is giving the over -112 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $18.92.
The Packers have come alive and are scoring a lot of points. Matt LaFleur will hang as many as he can on these Giants after the way the season started. I see the Packers scoring 30 and the Giants will take care of the rest for us.
Week 14 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Indianapolis Colts. This week’s MWW: Take the over. DraftKings has the over/under set at 44 points and is giving the over -112 odds so my $2 bet will pay out $3.78.
Neither team is shy to scoring points. I suspect we see the Colts defense do well against Cincinnati but I still expect to points in this game. I will probably sprinkle a little cheese on the Colts moneyline too. I doubt Browning will have two good weeks in a row but he could that’s why I would only sprinkle.
That’s all for week fourteen with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and is starting to get these bets going in the right direction. I think we’re going to see some wild winners come playoff time.
Let us know what your best bet is this week and if you beat the Pehs Dispenser, I’ll make Pehs answer for it next week.
Can’t Bet List: