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Exploring different Draft Day scenarios for the Colts

NFL Combine Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Everything goes according to plan

Of course, the NFL Draft is perhaps the most unpredictable event in the entire sports’ universe, but if there is a consensus about what is going to happen is Stroud and Young go #1 and #2 (in any order) and the Cardinals go BPA at the #3 and take edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. from Alabama. That would leave new Colts’ head coach Shane Steichen with the ideal fit for his scheme, and the Colts take Florida’s quarterback Anthony Richardson to become the new franchise quarterback.

Probability: 25%

Cardinals trade back with a different team, Colts miss out on Stroud, Young, and Richardson

This would be the nightmare scenario in my opinion, as that would leave the Colts with three choices, and none would give me that much hope. The first one would be to just suck it up and take Will Levis, the least enticing option of the top 4 quarterbacks. Not a knock against Levis, who is a decent prospect, but Stroud and Young give you a much higher floor, while Richardson has the highest ceiling of the entire class. After enduring four seasons without a potential franchise quarterback to root for, I would like to have a guy I trust at the helm. The second option the Colts have is to go BPA and take Will Anderson Jr., who would give the defense a pass-rushing demon and could transform the unit. Anderson Jr. would be solid, but the Colts need a quarterback. The other option would be the now patented Chris Ballard Trade Down TM, as the Colts realize that they would much rather gain some draft capital and roll the dice on getting either Williams or Maye next year.

Probability: 25%

Panthers take Richardson, Colts get either Stroud or Young

There is a decent chance that new Panthers’ head coach Frank Reich decides to take the player with the highest ceiling, and that is undoubtedly AR15. Assuming everything after that goes according to plan, that would leave the Colts with either C.J Stroud or Bryce Young. Either one would be fine by me, and I would be the happiest fan as the Colts would then have their quarterback of the future.

Probability: 10%

Colts trade up with the Cardinals, take either Stroud, Richardson, or Young

There are plenty of smokescreens going around this time of the year, and I can think of two teams right now that are probably pondering about trading up to the #3 spot. Think about the Tennessee Titans or the Las Vegas Raiders, both teams needing a new franchise quarterback. That might be enough for Ballard to pull the trigger and trade up to the #3 spot to prevent other teams from leapfrogging them. The capital needed to do that would probably a veteran player (thinking Kenny Moore or Ryan Kelly), the #4 overall pick of course, and this year’s third round pick, with perhaps another Day 3 pick from next year added on top.

Probability: 15%

Chaos, some scenario not mentioned above

There is a considerable chance that something different happens, as is almost always the case. I don’t know, the Texans might take Hendon Hooker, perhaps Reich fell in love with Levis’ bicep tattoo of a Bible quote and takes him at #1, Colts might have all four quarterbacks available, trade down, and then draft a guard... who knows. That is the beauty of the NFL Draft.

Probability: 25%