Breaking Down the Big 4 Quarterbacks

With the biggest draft in recent Colts history less than a day away, now is probably a good time to go over the 4 possible quarterback picks for the Colts in a detailed breakdown to understand which makes sense for the Colts at 4th overall. If Chris Ballard goes rogue and takes a defensive linemen or a cornerback, then this whole article is useless, but the chances of that are very slim. So with that being said, let’s look at the candidates, from most likely to least likely based on the current betting odds (as of Wednesday):

Will Levis

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 225 lbs.

Athleticism Score (NFL.com): 84 — 5th Ranked

Numbers of Games as a Starter: 24

Strengths:

• Extremely strong arm that stretches the field and can make all the throws
• Very good build with broad shoulders that can withstand a hit
• Good athlete who can make plays with his feet
• Quick, compact release and throwing motion
• When feet are set, he can make all kinds of throws with relatively good accuracy

Weaknesses:

• Ball placement and accuracy are wildly inconsistent due to poor lower body mechanics; mostly shotgun based system also raises questions about dropback footwork.
• Decision making is poor and it takes him a lot of time to go through his reads
• He doesn’t react too well under pressure; tends to freeze up.
• Offensive system was very basic and quarterback friendly with a lot of check-downs
• Questions have risen about his personality/character

Summary:

If you take Will Levis, you are completely betting on one thing and one thing only: his arm strength. He is a good athlete and his throwing mechanics are good enough at the moment, but you’re going all in on his arm talent and hoping a good coaching staff can fix the lower body mechanics which is what hurts his accuracy the most. They’re also hoping that same staff can fix his poor decision-making which has led to a lot of turnover-worthy throws. His arm might already be top 5 best in the NFL. He is as boom-or-bust a prospect as it gets.

Pro Comparison: Carson Wentz

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CJ Stroud

Height: 6’3”

Weight: 214 lbs.

Athleticism Score (NFL.com): 73 — 11th Ranked

Numbers of Games as a Starter: 25

Strengths:

• Very good build and more than adequate athleticism
• He has a strong arm that can make all the throws
• Extremely accurate thanks to sound lower body mechanics and a fluid throwing motion; leads his receivers and can place the ball in tight windows in all areas of the field
• Shows the ability to make plays with his feet outside the pocket, keeping his eyes downfield and making accurate throws
• Good amount of experience in big games, with his game against Georgia being a bright spot

Weaknesses:

• Tremendously aided by an easy quarterback friendly offense with NFL caliber receivers
• Questions have risen about his personality/character
• When stuck in the pocket, he doesn’t make accurate throws or correct decisions under pressure.
• It would be good for him to go through his 2nd and 3rd reads quicker at times
• Shotgun based system puts into question his drop-back footwork

Summary:

CJ Stroud is the most accurate passer in this class and he might have the best overall arm. He has a stronger arm than Young, but not Richardson and Levis, however he’s a lot more accurate than those last two I mentioned. He plays well in a clean pocket, but he demonstrates good ability outside the pocket; he does, however, need to work on making good reads and throws under pressure inside the pocket. The arm and the mechanics are up to NFL standards, it’s his head that needs to be questioned. He operated an easy quarterback-friendly offense and had Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr catching passes for him this year, as well as Chris Olave in 2021. He might be more ready than Levis or Richardson, but I’m not sure he can be successful at all in his first season due to transition questions as well as some decision-making/progression questions. To me, he’s the 2nd best quarterback in this class, but I wouldn’t rush to put him on the field.

Pro Comparison: Trevor Lawrence with a pinch of Kirk Cousins

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Anthony Richardson

Height: 6’4”

Weight: 244 lbs.

Athleticism Score (NFL.com): 99 — Top Ranked

Numbers of Games as a Starter: 12

Strengths:

• One of the best athletes to ever come into the draft at quarterback; built like a tank and runs like the wind
• He can make a lot of plays with his feet and can throw decently well on the run
• Very strong arm that can stretch the field and has the velocity to fit the ball into the tightest of windows
• He possesses a good throwing motion that is compact and quick

Weaknesses:

• Inexperienced player who will require a lot of time and development before he can take the field
• Accuracy is inconsistent due to poor overall alignment (mainly shoulders and hips, feet step out ok); ball placement is all over the place.
• He struggles mightily under pressure and is frazzled when dealing with it in the pocket
• He is still very much a one read and run guy.
• Decision making is poor; he stares down his targets and will force too many bad passes.

Summary:

Similar to Levis, if you’re taking Richardson, it’s for two reasons: his athleticism/size and his arm strength. He is one of the best athletes we’ve ever seen at quarterback and that alone makes him worth a high pick, but couple that with the fact that his arm is powerful and you have a raw but very intriguing quarterback to work with. He’s inexperienced so the decision-making, consistent ball placement and poise under pressure are just not there yet, so you’re probably looking at a 1 to 2 year project before he can take meaningful snaps on the field but he has top 5 quarterback potential if he hits his ceiling.

Pro Comparison: Cam Newton with better throwing mechanics

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Bryce Young

Height: 5’10”

Weight: 204 lbs.

Athleticism Score (NFL.com): 82 — 6th Ranked

Numbers of Games as a Starter: 27

Strengths:

• Exceptional amount of experience, especially in the playoffs and he has a national championship win to his name.
• Pro style system with multiple post-snap, full field reads will ease his transition to the NFL.
• Clever player in the pocket; knows exactly when to stay in the pocket, roll out or take off and run.
• He is very calm and poised under pressure
• Accurate quarterback who usually makes the right read; he’s kept his interceptions totals very low against stout competition.

Weaknesses:

• Undersized and smaller frame could make him more susceptible to injuries and passes batted down.
• His arm is good enough, but his passes outside the numbers and down the field lack pop.
• He needs to utilize his lower body more on weight transfers; he doesn’t fully step into his throws and has happy feet.
• He needs to trust his feet more.

Summary:

Bryce Young deserves to be the first overall pick, primarily because of his vast amount of experience, great poise, good accuracy, solid decision making and his ability to run a pro-style offense. Teams will be scared of his size/frame, and might point out his arm talent being average at best for NFL standards. He might not have a top 5 quarterback ceiling, but you are getting a safe prospect with a top 10 QB ceiling who can start on Day 1.

Pro Comparison: Kyler Murray body/athleticism with Joe Burrow arm

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Best Athlete:

1. Anthony Richardson
2. Will Levis
3. Bryce Young
4. CJ Stroud

Strongest Arm:

1. Will Levis
2. Anthony Richardson
3. CJ Stroud
4. Bryce Young

Most Accurate:

1. CJ Stroud
2. Bryce Young
3. Anthony Richardson
4. Will Levis

Best Skills Outside the Pocket (Passing):

1. Bryce Young
2. CJ Stroud
3. Anthony Richardson
4. Will Levis

Best Processing Speed/Decision Making:

1. Bryce Young
2. CJ Stroud
3. Anthony Richardson
4. Will Levis

Mechanics:

1. CJ Stroud
2. Bryce Young
3. Anthony Richardson
4. Will Levis

Poise/Intangibles:

1. Bryce Young
2. Anthony Richardson
3. CJ Stroud
4. Will Levis

Most Pro Ready Offense:

1. Bryce Young
2. Anthony Richardson
3. CJ Stroud
4. Will Levis

Best Overall Quarterback:

1. Bryce Young (15)
2. CJ Stroud (19)
3. Anthony Richardson (19)
4. Will Levis (27)

The numbers in brackets represent the cumulative ranks of the categories, with a lower score being better. I broke the tie on Stroud and Richardson with Stroud because he is more accurate and to me accuracy is the single most important trait a quarterback can possess.