Can the Colts win the Super Bowl next year? Slim, but there is a chance.

A fun article in the Athletic on looking at the chances of the predicted 5 worst football teams next year and their chances of winning the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl LVIII wins, 1 million simulations

Cardinals: 0.03%
Texans: 0.03%
Colts: 0.04%
Bucs: 0.4%
Titans: 1.2%

So how do the Colts do it?

Indianapolis Colts: 11-6, AFC South champs, No. 3 seed in AFC (Sim No. 2343)

9-4 in games decided by one score

L vs. JAX, 28-20
W @ HOU, 28-20
L @ BAL, 24-14
L vs. LA RAMS, 17-13
L vs. TEN, 14-10
W @ JAX, 21-20
W vs. CLE, 17-13
W vs. NO, 20-17
L @ CAR, 27-13
W @ NE, 16-13
W vs. TB, 35-24
W @ TEN, 27-24
W @ CIN, 20-17
L vs. PIT, 31-7
W @ ATL, 21-17
W vs. LV, 27-21
W vs. HOU, 21-20


W vs. PIT, 21-14
W @ BUF, 28-27
W @ KC, 27-24
W vs. DAL, 21-14

The methodology that the model used for Anthony Richardson replacing Garner Minshew was two-fold — either whenever the Colts’ record dropped below a .200 winning percentage (the threshold increases to .250 in the second half) or if they started 0-5. After a 14-10 loss to the Titans, the simmed Shane Steichen makes the move. And Richardson is ready. The Colts win seven of their next eight games and ultimately finish 10-2 with Richardson as their starting quarterback, winning the AFC South.

In the playoffs, the Colts have to go through the Steelers (seven-point win), Bills and Chiefs. Richardson leads the Colts to a one-point victory over one of the best teams in the NFL then has to face Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs. The Colts dispatch the Chiefs by three and get a date with the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, where Richardson leads Indy to a 21-14 win.

Interesting that simulations show Houston making the playoffs with a losing 8-9 record as a Wild Card team and the Bucs just over .500 at 9-8. They have Arizona at 12-5 and Tennessee at 14-3.

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