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Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week One Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
#1: Best Bet for Beginners (0-1 record on the year)- 3-game parlay of the Vikings, Ravens, and Eagles to win with the moneyline.
This bet gave us +157 odds with Draftkings Sportsbook. Had you bet $10 on this parlay, you would have lost all $10 because somehow the Vikings lost to a Baker Mayfield-led Buccaneers team. Bummer.
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am (0-1 record on the year)- The Jaguars Defense First Touchdown Scorer
This bet had +1600 odds as Pehs predicted and while it didn’t happen, it’s understandable why Pehs “sprinkled some coins” on this bet. Had he hit a $10 bet he would have won $170. In actuality had you bet $10 on this you’d just be out $10, but Pehs told you not to do it.
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week) (0-1 record on the year)- The Bengals moneyline over the Browns
Not a great start for Pehs’ lock of the week, but to be fair, I don’t know if anyone expected the Bengals to come out and look as bad as they did. The Browns quarterback played terribly and they still won by three scores. Had you bet $10 on this game, you’d be out another $10.
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager (1-0 record on the year)- Anthony Richardson to throw an interception
My forced bet of the week has to be on the Colts but I never said it had to be positive. So I gritted my teeth and hoped to lose my $2 bet. Unfortunately, my bet hit. DraftKings gave me -125 odds so I won a total of $3.60. I’ll take my free $1.60.
To be fair to Pehs he did say, multiple times, how much he hates picking games before week one. Let’s see what he has for us in week two.
Week 2 Best Bet for Beginners:
This week’s BBB is another three-game moneyline parlay this time it’s the Cowboys, 49ers, and Bills. At the time of this writing, DraftKings is giving this parlay +101 odds, which means a $10 bet pays out, $20.12.
This parlay is good for beginners because it offers decent odds on three teams someone new to sports betting will probably feel comfortable betting on.
Pehs Says:
We know what these teams are after week one, great teams. Except the Bills but there’s no way Josh Allen throws three interceptions and fumbles again.
Week 2 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a three-game parlay, against the spread taking the Cincinnati Bengals -3, the Buffalo Bills -8.5, and the Tennessee Titans +3. As of right now, DraftKings is giving you this parlay at +582 odds. A $10 bet would pay out $68.27.
I’m taking Pehs’ advice and not doing this. I mean I get it, +582 odds and all, but relying on the Bengals, Bills and Titans to all three win a game in the same week is too much for me to handle after what we saw in week one.
Pehs Says:
I’m picking hungry “dawgs” to play better than they played in week one. These teams sucked week one. The Bengals OL might be terrible. Josh Allen might have decided he doesn’t want to win anymore. Derrick Henry might go two weeks in a row without scoring a touchdown. But, I don’t believe any of those things to be true. The Bills and Bengals are hungry to show the league they’ll be there in the end. I think they both win by double digits. The Titans on the other hand might not win but we’re hoping its within a field goal.
Week 2 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is betting on Derrick Henry to score a touchdown. The odds on this one aren’t out this week but after the Titans' anemic offensive showing in week one, this pick for the lock of the week surprised me.
Pehs Says:
If Henry doesn’t score one week, he’ll score the next. This week, I might sprinkle some coins on him to score more than one. And if it doesn’t hit this week, the lock for next week will be the same. We’ll Just keep doubling down until it hits.
Week 2: Mandatory Weekly Wager
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Colts. This week’s MWW: bet the under of Colts v. Texans.
The Over/Under of the Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans game is currently 40 points. Pehs is telling me I have to take the under. For the second week in a row, I don’t love that I have to bet on what I have to bet on, but also for the second week in a row, I think he’s right on this one.
The Texans' offensive line has been destroyed by injuries and the Colts' defensive line is going to make life very difficult on C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense. On the other side of the ball, the Houston defense looked very good as well, forcing former league MVP Lamar Jackson to play poorly in week one.
DraftKings has the under at -110 so my $2 bet will pay out $3.81 if it hits this week.
Pehs Says:
Division game. Both defensive lines are good. Unless there are three defensive touchdowns in this game I think the under hits. I see a 13-17 or 17-20 score coming out of this game.
That’s all for week two with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and who actually is as good at sports betting as anyone can be, probably.
Make sure to check back in next week to see how we did and to get next week’s picks.
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