Week 2 Opposing QB

An analysis of C.J. Stroud

By T. Troy Russell@TTroyRussell Sep 16, 2023, 12:30pm EDT

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

NOTE: All references to rankings are of the top 32 QBs by dropbacks through the current week.

C.J. Stroud landed on the injury list Friday, so he is questionable to start against The Colts Sunday. I’ll assume he is the starter and look at the numbers from his debut week.

Now, you can’t tell from one game how good a QB will be, but you certainly can tell how good he was . . . and Stroud wasn’t.

DASHBOARD

opd, edp, arsr, pr%, ttt, adot, ay/c, sck%, scr%, ta%, aa%, aay, cmp%, cpoe, yac, yacoe, ypa, ny/d, 1st%, td%, to%, epa/d, psr

Houston took a pass first approach (11th edp) and with the 29th ranked run game (arsr), I don’t blame them. Stroud was pressured all day (3rd pr%) even though he got rid of the ball very quickly (24th ttt). That’s not a ringing endorsement for his protecion as he certainly wasn’t inviting his own pressure.

Those quick passes were on short attempts (24th adot) that led to short completions (20th ay/c) and should have led to a high completion rate, but didn’t. Given that distance his completion rate was -4.6% below expected (21st cpoe).

The pressure rate led to a lot of abandoned plays (15th aa%), but his legs couldn’t bail him out as he had the 8th highest sack rate (sck%) and the 9th shortest yards gained per abandoned play (24th aay).

His receivers weren’t able make up for these issues with any additional YAC (19th yacoe) and so his overall yardage efficiency was poor (25th ny/d). However, even with that short yardage, he did manage to convert a decent amount of first downs (16th 1st%), but that didn’t lead to the endzone (0 TD%).

He managed the ball OK (20th to%), but that couldn’t save his day. He finished 26th in average play value and 27th in proprtion of successful plays. It certainly seems that his team wasn’t doing him any favors, but he wasn’t exactly helping himself out either.