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Week 2: Offensive Rankings and Analysis

By T. Troy Russell
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans Jenna Watson-USA TODAY Sports

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

Against the Texans, the Colts’ offense moved the ball down the field well. 19 first downs on 25 series is a 76% Drive Success Rate, which was the 13th-best mark of the week. Add to that, no turnovers and that is a proficient offense.

They were balanced and efficient and I want more.

For the next sections of rankings, I have added a “Gallery” functionality so that you can see both the current week and year-to-date rankings. Use the left/right arrow to switch views.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover for definitions: Adj PPD, Team PPG, Off PPG, Yds, P/R%, DSR, yds/srs, Strt Fld, xOPPD, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%

The Colts had the 4th best Points per Drive in week 2, which was driven by good yardage efficiency and a good first down conversion rate (9th yds/ply, 9th 1st/ply).

They had good explosive plays and left 3rd downs make-able (17th 34d ytg), which helped earn an 8th highest 3rd down conversion rate.

The only complaint I have is that their TOP ranked 26th. It’s a miracle they won.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sk, Sk Y, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, cpoe, YBC, YAC, 20+ #/Yd

The passing game (both QBs) finsihed 12th on the week in efficiency, but only 16th by success rate. “Blame” the explosive plays for that disconnect.

Yardage efficiency was a little low (17th ny/d), but a 13th-ranked conversion rate lifted that.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Mouseover definitions: adj RSR, Yds, Car, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, 3DC, epa/c,

The run game was the driver of the offensive success. A 4th best adj Rush Success Rate came from good yardage (2nd ypc) and valuable plays (3 TDs and 6 firsts). Their EPA efficiency ranked #1 on the week.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

Through 2 weeks, the offense is shaping up well. They are above average in both passing and running and there is hope that both phases can get better as the season unfolds. Just probably not next week.

The next test for the offense is the Baltimore Ravens’ defense ranked 6th best in Points per Drive against. They also give up the 4th fewest yards per play and 4th lowest 1st down conversion rate. So, there’s that.

Against the pass, they give up the 9th lowest EPA per Dropback, the 8th lowest conversion rate, and the 4th fewest Net Yards per Dropback. Assuming Richardson plays, that does not bode well for a QB with 1.25 games under his belt. If instead it is Minshew under center then, well . . . that still does not bode well.

Against the run, the Ravens' defense is top 10, with an 8th ranked adj Rush Succes Rate against. They have limited opponents to the 3rd lowest conversion rate and no rushing TDs. Yikes.

This one won’t be good. Colts are 8 point ‘dogs.

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