Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week Two Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
#1: Best Bet for Beginners- three-game moneyline parlay, taking the Cowboys, 49ers, and Bills.
This bet gave us +101 odds and it hit! All three teams won their games meaning had you placed a $10 bet you would have come away with $20.12.
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= $0.12 (1-1 record on the year)
Draftkings gave Pehs this parlay at +582 odds and for good reason, as it did not hit. But a $10 bet would have paid out $68.27, so I understand the allure. But hey, Pehs told you not to do it.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$20.00 (0-2 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- Derrick Henry to score a touchdown
This one gave us -110 odds and Derrick Henry did, in fact, score a touchdown. So the Pehs Dispenser hit for week two!
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= 9.09 (1-1 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- take the under on the Colts and Texans scoring 40 total points
In a move that was pleasantly surprising, the Indianapolis Colts offense came out hot on offense and piled up points against a bad Houston Texans team. I believed we were weeks away from seeing anything like it, if we saw it at all this season. So I wasn’t too upset when my $2 bet at -110 odds didn’t hit.
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= $1.60 (1-1 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 3 Best Bet for Beginners:
This week’s BBB is a two-game parlay of the Buffalo Bills -6.5, and the Miami Dolphins -6.5
This time we’re betting that both the Bills and Dolphins are going to win their games by at least 7 points. It is a risky bet, as a lot of NFL games finish closer than 7 points. That said, DraftKings Sportsbook is giving us +258 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $35.82.
It’s week three and rookies should be feeling better about things by now so we’re betting the spread. I feel good about the Dolphins and Bills this week.
Week 3 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a three-game parlay: Titans moneyline, Lions -3, Eagles v. Bucs Over
This bet is getting +683 on DraftKings which means a $10 bet would pay out $78.33. This bet is insane. This is obviously my opinion, not Pehs’, but I’m going to take him up on the offer of not betting on it, but I know one of these weeks this bet is going to hit and I’m going to regret not taking it. But I don’t think this is the week for me.
Dan Campbell at home, he’s going to have those boys ready to go, he’s crazy. Bucs and Eagles, you kiddin’ me? Two elite quarterbacks- he says laughing- the Eagles are probably going to put up 31 and the Bucs should be good for another 17 to 20. And I’m taking the Titans because I hate the Browns. They paid a rape-er... you should say allegedly, keep me out of the lawsuit.
Week 3 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is betting on the San Francisco 49ers to cover -10.
DraftKings is giving this -112 odds so a $10 bet will pay out $18.92. In weeks past Pehs has told us that if you’re looking for a “lock” you need to bet on a great team and so far that’s what the 49ers have shown themselves to be. The New York Giants have had a rough start and are down Saquon Barkley. I totally understand why Pehs went with the 9ers -10 as his lock of the week.
We’re talking about a 49ers team that has yet to be slowed down I think they’re going to cover but Thursday games are weird. Not a lot to say about the 9ers. Purdy is a guy for that offense, he wouldn’t be for many teams, but he is for them.
Something else I want to make perfectly clear: teams we’re not betting on until further notice:
Week 3 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Colts. This week’s MWW: Colts vs. Ravens Bet the Over.
The Over/Under for the Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens game is currently at 44.5 points, which means in order for me to win this $2 bet the Colts and Ravens have to combine for 45 or more points. Having watched both of the Ravens games this year, I think Pehs is right to think the two teams will combine for 45 or more points, but time will tell.
As good as the Colts defense has been, there’s a good chance Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are going to own time of possession and by the end of the 3rd quarter the Ravens are going to just hang points on Indy. The Colts should score a few times in the game, but this one is going to go to the Ravens.
That’s all for week three with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and who actually is as good at sports betting as anyone can be, probably.
Make sure to check back in next week to see how we did and to get next week’s picks.