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Week 3 QB analysis: Colts win despite poor QB play

By T. Troy Russell
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts passing game performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

DASHBOARD

  • Minshew was pressured much of the day even though he got rid of the ball quickly. That illustrates the poor O-line protection (7th pr%, 22nd ttt).
  • Even with quick passes, his depth of target was about league average, but he only managed to complete the short ones (16th adot, 21st ay/c). That was partially driven by the pressure (check-downs), but it was also a result of his poor accuracy (23rd cpoe).
  • Short passes should garner big YAC, but that wasn’t the case this week (27th yac, 26th yacoe). Again, accuracy is a factor here.
  • Poor accuracy + short completions + short yac = bad yardage efficiency (27th ypa)
  • Against the pressure, Minshew was not able to scramble or throw the ball away, instead taking the sack (7th sck%, 29th scr%, 21st ta%). However, his pass abandon rate was below average, suggesting he dealt with the pressure by making a lot of check-downs (18th aa%).
  • Due to his high sack/low scramble style, his yards per abandoned attempt was almost league-worst, which dragged his yardage efficiency down even further to only 3.8 yards per pass play (29th aay, 26th ny/d)
  • That poor efficiency prevented him from moving the chains, which kept him from throwing TDs (31st 1st%, 24th td%).

The main takeaways here are lots of pressure and bad throws. His overall value per play and success rate were very poor (25th epa/d, 26th psr).

HOW WELL?

He could not consistently string together successful plays. The middle of the 2nd qtr saw 6 out of 7 successful pass plays, but for the rest of the game, they were few and far between.

This next chart shows this game was a return to 2022 type numbers.

HOW FAR?

There were a significant number of downfield attempts this week, which is good, but most of them were incomplete, which is not so good.

Completion depth was up this week, so I guess that is sort of a positive . . . maybe?

Season-wise, the Colts have thrown short.

TO WHO?

Downs had the most targets, but Pittman edged him out in catches and yards.

Wide receivers should be in the upper right quadrant. Way to go Ogletree?

HOW ACCURATE?

Remember week 2 and the accurate passes? That guy is gone.

HOW FAST?

The Colts are throwing very quickly. This week may have been more about pressure than scheme, however.

TO WHERE?

Note to self: Keep Minshew away from the left side.

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