Sports betting is all the rage, but I’m not very good at it. This year I’m determined to figure out how to beat the odds once and for all but I’ll need a little help to make it happen.
It turns out that I happen to know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list.
Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years
as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods, and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am Bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.
In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.
Week Three Recap
Let’s take a quick look at what picks Pehs gave us last week:
#1: Best Bet for Beginners- two-game parlay of the Buffalo Bills -6.5, and the Miami Dolphins -6.5 at +258 odds through Draftkings Sportsbook. This bet hit in a big way and a $10 bet would have paid out $35.82
BBB Total Yearly Winnings*= $35.94 (2-1 record on the year)
#2: You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am- three-game parlay: Titans moneyline, Lions -3, Eagles v. Bucs Over. Draftkings was giving this parlay +683 odds and for good reason. The only leg of this parlay that hit was the Lions -3. Pehs swung for the fences, as he should, that’s what this bet is for. But this bet misses again.
YSDTBITA Total Yearly Winnings*= -$30.00 (0-3 record on the year)
#3: Pehs Dispenser (lock of the week)- San Francisco 49ers to cover -10. Draftkings was giving this bet -112 odds. So a $10 bet paid out $18.92. This bet did hit as the San Francisco 49ers easily beat the New York Giants, 30-12. A nice win for the Pehs Dispenser.
Pehs Dispenser Total Yearly Winnings*= $28.01 (2-1 record on the year)
#4: My Mandatory Weekly Wager- Colts vs. Ravens Bet the Over. Sadly this bet did not hit. Fortunately the Colts won, so I didn’t care that I lost $2. All’s well that ends well but hopefully Pehs gets me going on the right side of the wagering coin this week.
My Mandatory Weekly Wager Total Yearly Winnings= -$0.40 (1-2 record on the year)
*” winnings” assumes a $10 bet and the cost of the initial $10.
Week 4 Best Bet for Beginners:
This week’s BBB is a two game parlay of the Eagles -8 and Ravens +3. Draftkings Sportsbook is giving this parlay +253 odds so a $10 bet would pay out $35.38. Not bad for a pretty straightforward parlay.
I hate this bet, I’d rather take the Commanders to cover in this game but I can’t tell people to bet on the Commanders in a game against the Eagles! For me the Ravens are pretty easy, there’s no way Lamar loses two games in a row.
Week 4 You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am:
This week’s YSDTBITA is a two way parlay of Bijan Robinson to score two touchdowns (+550) and Jalen Hurts to score a touchdown. Together this parlay gives you +1091 odds from Draftkings. A $10 bet would pay out $119.16.
Jalen Hurts is going to get a tush push- he’s good for one a game it feels like (he says laughing). The Jaguars defense has been bad and Bijan has looked really good. Bijan has yet to score a rushing touchdown, he’s due for a couple in this one. There’s no way this bet hits, but for +1091 I can’t not throw some money at it.
Week 4 Pehs Dispenser:
In his lock of the week, Pehs is betting on a three way parlay of anytime touchdown scorers: Anthony Richardson, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones.
The lines aren’t out yet for this bet but it should be around +1350 or so. AR’s going to run the ball, Allen’s going to go all out to win against the Dolphins and Danny Dimes is going to run one in because he won’t have any other choice.
Week 4 Mandatory Weekly Wager:
In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Indianapolis Colts. This week’s MWW: Bet the Colts vs Rams Under 47 points parlayed with Matthew Stafford to throw an interception. DraftKings is giving this bet +244 odds. A $2 bet will pay out $6.88.
The Colts are going to get a lot of pressure on Stafford and we’ll see him throw a pick. The Colts defense has been excellent this year and to win the game they’ll need to keep that up.
That’s all for week four with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, and who actually is as good at sports betting as anyone can be, probably.
Make sure to check back in next week to see how we did and to get next week’s picks.
A quick note about this week’s article: I casually mentioned to Pehs earlier this week that we were going to push the article back by a day to let DraftKings roll out more odds so that it might let him build some bets with longer odds for the article. What I meant was- “hey man if you want to go crazy with the “You Shouldn’t Do This But I Totally Am” bet, this will give you a better chance to do it”.
He heard “Give me four bets with insane odds”
I’ve learned my lesson about making suggestions to
degenerate expert gamblers. This week might be a little rough but we’ll level out next week. Who knows, maybe they all hit anyway? That’s what makes it fun.