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Weekly Wagers 1: this is not an investment strategy

Don’t bet any money based on anything you read here.

In this photo illustration the American football league, The... Photo Illustration by Budrul Chukrut/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Sports betting is all the rage, but if you’re like me, you don’t really know what you’re doing beyond donating money to sportsbooks who really don’t seem like they need the spare cash. This season I’m determined to figure this thing out once and for all. There are just two problems:

  1. I’m incredibly cheap. I’m the kind of cheap that I won’t order pasta at a restaurant because I know the profit margin is too high for the restaurant and I won’t be able to enjoy my meal because I’ll feel like they got one over on me. Yeah, that kind of cheap.
  2. Despite this being the golden era of legal sports betting and content creation, I have no interest in putting in the effort to learn how to do this well. I’m already really busy.

I might have a solution to at least one of my problems. I don’t know that I’ll ever get less cheap, but I’ll work on it. Maybe. It turns out that I know a sports betting expert, he goes by Pehs online, and he’s totally not my brother. You can find him on Twitter @NeverNotNick. There are several things in this article that I don’t recommend and following him on Twitter is at the top of that list. I’ve warned you, but the choice is ultimately yours. He will provide more gambling picks there if you’re interested.

Pehs (pronounced like the candy) has spent years as a degenerate gambler practicing and honing his methods and this year I’ve asked him to share what he’s learned with me and give me a few picks each week. The goal, is that every week he’ll give us three picks. His Best Bet for Beginners, the You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am bet, and the Pehs Dispenser- his lock of the week is always a sweet treat.

In order for Pehs to agree to do this, I had to agree to place a bet of his choosing on the Colts each and every week. So we’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses via the Mandatory Weekly Wager.

I did manage to only have to bet $2 a week, so my frugality isn’t completely lost.

Without further ado, let’s get to Pehs’ picks.

Best Bet for Beginners

This week’s BBB is a three game parlay, taking the money line on the Vikings, Ravens and Eagles and at the time of this writing DraftKings is giving this parlay +157 odds, which means a $10 bet pays out, $25.70.

DraftKings Sportsbook makes it simple to do, on the NFL tab, you just click on the “Moneyline” bets you want, in this case you would pick the Vikings, Ravens and Eagles and the “parlay” pops up automatically in your bet slip.

“Parlay” just means it’s a multifaceted bet. If all three teams win, you win the bet. If any of the teams lose, you lose the bet. Parlay’s are nice because the it’s likely the Vikings, Ravens and Eagles are all going to win but you would never get odds anywhere nearly as good without the added risk that comes from betting on multiple teams at once. So, that’s the trade off.

Pehs let me know that this is the kind of bet that’s great if you’re new to sports betting because it’s fairly straight forward. It isn’t hard to understand and in his words:

…if you have a friend or two that are degenerate gamblers, but you are a responsible adult and want some action for the group chat that makes it seem like you have been gambling for years. Take a couple money line bets in a parlay. Degenerate gamblers love a parlay.

You Shouldn’t Do This, But I Totally Am

This week’s YSDTBITA is one that doesn’t have posted odds yet but Pehs being the degenerate experienced gambler he is, assured me that it will eventually be a betting option with odds he likes. So Pehs is betting:

The Jaguars Defense First Touchdown Scorer

He said:

(you shouldn’t bet on this) because its such a long shot but the Jaguars defense first touchdown scored will probably be around + 1600. The Jaguars defense will have a couple opportunities while Richardson gets his first regular season reps. If you don’t like this bet find another young QB that is playing against a functioning defense and sprinkle some coins on them to score an early touchdown. Except don’t, you shouldn’t do this, but I totally am.

As a fan, I hope he's wrong but at +1600 odds, someone might be tempted to "sprinkle some coins" on whatever defense C.J. Stroud and the Texans are playing against this weekend.

Pehs Dispenser

In his lock of the week Pehs picks:

Bengals -2.5 over the Browns.

In his words:

With the Pehs Dispenser we’ve got to bet on the teams we know are great. The Bengals normally start the season slow but they start their season with the sorry Browns and the line is only -2.5. bet responsibly but lets send the kids to college with this game.

Mandatory Weekly Wager

In agreeing to do this article Pehs wanted me to place a weekly bet and I agreed as long as it could be a bet on the Colts. I probably should have read the fine print, because this week I’m hoping to lose my first $2 bet.

MWW: Anthony Richardson to throw an Interception (odds not out at the time of writing)

Logically this checks out. Pehs is probably setting me up to win my first Mandatory Wager. Richardson started in just 13 college games and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he threw a pick in week one. It probably wouldn’t even be a bad thing, if I’m being honest. Betting aside, getting that first interception out of the way and seeing how he responds to it when the games actually matter, would probably be better than him getting lucky for a few weeks, thinking he’s invincible and the NFL is easy.

So that’s it. That’s the thing I’ve got to throw my $2 down on this week. I don’t love it but I’ll report back next week and see how much my initial $2 investment is worth.

That’s all for week one with Pehs, who is totally not my brother, who you should actually not follow on social media (I mean that one), and who actually is as good at sports betting as anyone can be.

Make sure to check back in next week to see how we did and to get next week’s picks.