Both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans have identical records. The Colts played a third place schedule while the Texans played a fourth place schedule. Both reside in the AFC South and play the same opponents within the division. The Texans will be trotting out a rookie quarterback while the Colts will be defending their home turf. Oh, and although a lot of time has passed, the Colts beat the Texans back in week two.
When you see all of that on paper it is hard to imagine how the Colts are underdogs. Even underdogs get some love occasionally, but if you have been watching anything on the major sport networks or websites, you would be hard pressed to find someone taking the Colts. Many people believed this team would be a cellar dweller in 2023 and having a chance at the playoffs would be a stretch. Well, here we are with a shot to make the playoffs and potentially win the division. Still, no one believes in this team.
If you check out the game preview, currently 84% of the bets are on Houston to cover the spread with 68% for them to win on the moneyline. Ouch.
I think I understand that one because to fans who don’t normally watch the two teams, what sounds like the sexier pick? Do you want the journeyman backup or the sensational rookie taking the NFL by storm? I get it. If you can’t name many players on either team, you tend to gravitate the highest marquee player and make your pick accordingly.
Now, all of this is to say that the Texans may win tonight. That is a real possibility. Do they deserve an 84% backing on the spread and to be favorites on the road in a high pressured game? I don’t think they have earned that benefit yet. They are a good team but still have plenty of flaws. I would expect for the home team to get the edge when two teams with identical records and similar opponents and schedules meet in a pivitol game.
Maybe Vegas knows something I don’t. Heck, they nailed the Falcons game on Christmas Eve. Then again, the odds and spread really don’t matter, do they? What matters is taking care of business and proving all thet “experts” wrong. The Colts have their shot tonight. Will they take advantage?